Reaching energy autonomy in a medium‐sized city – three scenarios to model possible future energy developments in the residential building sector

作者：Claudia Dobler, Dominik Pfeifer, Wolfgang Streicher · 发表于：Sustainable Development · 年份：2018 · DOI：10.1002/sd.1855 · 被引用次数：10 · 研究领域：Energy, Environment, and Transportation Policies、Global Energy and Sustainability Research、Climate Change Policy and Economics

Abstract A city energy model was developed to demonstrate possible future trajectories for the residential building sector up until 2050 for the city of Innsbruck in Austria, a medium‐sized city in the Austrian Alps. It examines final and delivered energy, respectively, from a demand side perspective. Three different scenarios are defined to illustrate the range of future developments in the residential building sector (scenario analysis). The base scenario 1 represents a continuation of recent trends (business‐as‐usual). The middle course scenario 2 is characterized by stricter thermal standards for the building envelope and a beginning of withdrawal from fossil fuels from 2031. The target scenario 3 objective is specified as a 50% reduction in delivered energy and a complete transition to renewable energies by 2050. Scenario 3 differs from scenario 2 primarily in the aspect of an earlier implementation date for certain measures, for example, the beginning of the withdrawal from fossil fuels is scheduled for 2021.