Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000–15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

作者：Nick Golding, Roy Burstein, Joshua Longbottom, Annie J. Browne, Nancy Fullman, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Lucas Earl, Samir Bhatt, Ewan Cameron, Daniel Casey, Laura Dwyer‐Lindgren, Tamer H. Farag, Abraham D. Flaxman, Maya Fraser, Peter W. Gething, Harry S. Gibson, Nicholas Graetz, L Kendall Krause, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Stephen S Lim, Bonnie Mappin, Chloe Morozoff, Robert C. Reiner, Amber Sligar, David L. Smith, Haidong Wang, Daniel J. Weiss, Christopher J L Murray, Catherine L. Moyes, Simon I Hay · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31758-0 · 被引用次数：318 · 研究领域：Global Maternal and Child Health、Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare、Child Nutrition and Water Access

BACKGROUND: During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. METHODS: We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels-national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2-to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. FINDINGS: Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substant...