Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

作者：Mohsen Naghavi, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Victor Aboyans, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Ashkan Afshin, Anurag Agrawal, Alireza Ahmadi, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Sneha Aiyar, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Shazia Alam, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Syed Danish Ali, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Juma Alkaabi, Ala’a Alkerwi, François Alla, Peter Allebeck, Christine A. Allen, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Nahla Anber, Hjalte Holm Andersen, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Hossein Ansari, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Megha Arora, Al Artaman, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Umar Bacha, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Aleksandra Barać, Miguel A. Barboza, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Sı́món Barquera, Lars Barregård, Lope H. Barrero, Bernhard T. Baune, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, James R. Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adugnaw Berhane, Eduardo Bernabé, Balem Demtsu Betsu, Mircea Beuran, Samir Bhatt, Sibhatu Biadgilign, Kelly Bienhoff, Boris Bikbov, Donal Bisanzio, Rupert Bourne, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Lemma N Bulto, Blair R Bumgarner, Zahid A Butt, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ewan Cameron, Julio César Campuzano, Josip Car, Rosario Cárdenas, Juan Jesús Carrero, Austin Carter, Daniel Casey, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Fiona Charlson, Chioma Ezinne Chibueze, Odgerel Chimed‐Ochir, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Aaron J. Cohen, Danny V. Colombara, Cyrus Cooper, Benjamin C Cowie, Michael H Criqui, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, José das Neves, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Kairat Davletov, Barbora de Courten, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Louisa Degenhardt, Selina Deiparine, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Subhojit Dey, Daniel Dicker, Eric L. Ding, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc, David Teye Doku, Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Tim Driscoll, Manisha Dubey, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Michelle Echko, Ziad El‐Khatib, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Ahmadali Enayati, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Holly E Erskine, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Carla Sofia e Sá Farinha, André Faro, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, João Carlos Fernandes, Alize J Ferrari, Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa, Irina Filip, Samuel Finegold, Florian Fischer, Christina Fitzmaurice, Abraham D Flaxman, Nataliya A Foigt, Tahvi Frank, Maya Fraser, Nancy Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Emmanuela Gakidou, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Teshome Gebre, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Delelegn Yilma Gebremichael, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Ricard Gènova-Maleras, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Peter W. Gething, Richard F Gillum, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Maurice Giroud, Giorgia Giussani, William Godwin, Audra L Gold, Ellen M Goldberg, Philimon Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Hebe Gouda, Alessandra C. Goulart, Max Griswold, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Parkash C Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Alemayehu Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Randah R Hamadeh, Mitiku Teshome Hambisa, Samer Hamidi, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Habtamu Abera Hareri, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I Hay, Fei He, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Nathaniel J Henry, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Claudiu Herţeliu, Hans W. Hoek, Masako Horino, Nobuyuki Horita, Hung Chak Ho, Sorin Hostiuc, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Chantal Huynh, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Chad Ikeda, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, Asnake Ararsa Irenso, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Mehdi Javanbakht, Sudha Jayaraman, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Vivekanand Jha, Denny John, Catherine O. Johnson, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Ritul Kamal, André Karch, Seyed M Karimi, Chanté Karimkhani, Amir Kasaeian, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Norito Kawakami, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Laura Kemmer, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Yousef Khader, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Abdullah T Khoja, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Ardeshir Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Christian Kieling, Daniel Kievlan, Yun Jin Kim, Daniel Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Niranjan Kissoon, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Jacek A Kopec, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, G Anil Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Michael Kutz, Hmwe Hmwe Kyu, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Tea Lallukka Nkurunziza Lambert, Qing Lan, Van Charles Lansingh, Anders Larsson, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Janni Leung, Miriam Levi, Yongmei Li, Darya Li Kappe, Xiaofeng Liang, Misgan Legesse Liben, Stephen S Lim, Patrick Y Liu, Angela Liu, Yang Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Giancarlo Logroscino, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Tim Lucas, Stefan Ma, Erlyn Rachelle King Macarayan, Emilie R Maddison, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Rajesh Malhotra, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Helena Manguerra, Tsegahun Manyazewal, Chabila C Mapoma, Laurie B. Marczak, Desalegn Markos, José Martı́nez-Raga, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Ira Martopullo, Colm McAlinden, Madeline McGaughey, John J. McGrath, Suresh Mehata, Toni Meier, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Bereket Gebremichael Menota, George A. Mensah, Tuomo J Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Anoushka Millear, Ted R. Miller, Shawn Minnig, Mojde Mirarefin, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Shiva Raj Mishra, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Alireza Mohammadi, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Glen Mola, Sarah K Mollenkopf, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Montañez, Marcella Montico, Meghan Mooney, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Chloe Morozoff, Shane D. Morrison, Cliff Mountjoy-Venning, Kalayu Brhane Mruts, Kate Muller, G. V. S. Murthy, Kamarul Imran Musa, Jean B. Nachega, Aliya Naheed, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Jamal Nasher, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Minh Nguyen, Emma Nichols, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Anselm Okoro, Andrew T Olagunju, Helen Elizabeth Olsen, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Sok King Ong, John Nelson Opio, Eyal Oren, Alberto Ortíz, Majdi Osman, Erika Ota, P A Mahesh, Rosana Pacella, Smita Pakhalé, Adrian Pană, Basant Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Christina Papachristou, Eun‐Kee Park, Scott B. Patten, George Patton, Deepak Paudel, Katherine Paulson, David M. Pereira, Fernando Pérez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, David M. Pigott, Christine Pinho, Dietrich Plaß, Martin A Pletcher, Suzanne Polinder, Maarten J. Postma, Farshad Pourmalek, Caroline Purcell, Mostafa Qorbani, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Zane Rankin, Puja C Rao, Goura Kishor Rath, Salman Rawaf, Sarah E. Ray, Jürgen Rehm, Robert C. Reiner, Marissa B Reitsma, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Satar Rezaei, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Mohammad Bagher Rokni, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, George Mugambage Ruhago, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Soheil Saadat, Perminder S. Sachdev, Nafis Sadat, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Ramesh Sahathevan, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Joshua A. Salomon, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Damian Santomauro, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, María Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Saeid Shahraz, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mansour Shamsipour, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Muki Shey, Peilin Shi, Chloe Shields, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Shreya Shirude, Ivy Shiue, Haitham Shoman, Mark G. Shrime, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Naris Silpakit, João Pedro Silva, Jasvinder A. Singh, Abhishek Singh, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amber Sligar, David L. Smith, A. Gordon Smith, Mari Smith, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Samir Soneji, Reed J D Sorensen, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Jeffrey D Stanaway, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nicholas Steel, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, S. Steinke, Mark A. Stokes, Mark Strong, Bryan Strub, Michelle Subart, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Bruno Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Ken Takahashi, Jukka Takala, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Mohammad Tarawneh, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Nuno Taveira, Teketo Kassaw Tegegne, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, JS Thakur, Ornwipa Thamsuwan, Kavumpurathu Raman Thankappan, Katie E Thomas, Alex H Thompson, A. J. Thomson, Amanda G. Thrift, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Roman Topór-Mądry, Anna E Torre, Miguel Tortajada, Jeffrey Allen Towbin, Bach Xuan Tran, Christopher Troeger, Thomas Truelsen, Derrick Tsoi, E. Murat Tuzcu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Rachel L Updike, Olalekan A. Uthman, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Job F. M. van Boven, Tommi Vasankari, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Francesco Saverio Violante, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Tolassa Wakayo, Mitchell T. Wallin, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Daniel J. Weiss, Andrea Werdecker, Ronny Westerman, Brian Whetter, Harvey Whiteford, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Belete Getahun Woldeyes, Charles Wolfe, Rachel Woodbrook, Abdulhalik Workicho, Denis Xavier, Qingyang Xiao, Gelin Xu, Mohsen Yaghoubi, Bereket Yakob, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Elias Asfaw Zegeye, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Anthony Lin Zhang, Xueying Zhang, Ben Zipkin, Sanjay Zodpey, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(17)32152-9 · 被引用次数：4963 · 研究领域：Global Maternal and Child Health、Maternal and Neonatal Healthcare、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management

BACKGROUND: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble mod...