Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates

作者：Chuang Zhao, Bing Liu, Shilong Piao, Xuhui Wang, David B. Lobell, Yao Huang, Mengtian Huang, Yitong Yao, Simona Bassu, Philippe Ciais, J. L. Durand, Joshua Elliott, Frank A. Ewert, Ivan August Janssens, Tao Li, Erda Lin, Qiang Liu, Pierre Martre, Christoph Müller, Shushi Peng, Josep Peñuelas, Alex C. Ruane, Daniel Wallach, Tao Wang, Donghai Wu, Zhuo Liu, Yan Peng Zhu, Zaichun Zhu, Senthold Asseng · 发表于：Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1073/pnas.1701762114 · 被引用次数：3349 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Plant responses to elevated CO2、Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact

Significance Agricultural production is vulnerable to climate change. Understanding climate change, especially the temperature impacts, is critical if policymakers, agriculturalists, and crop breeders are to ensure global food security. Our study, by compiling extensive published results from four analytical methods, shows that independent methods consistently estimated negative temperature impacts on yields of four major crops at the global scale, generally underpinned by similar impacts at country and site scales. Multimethod analyses improved the confidence in assessments of future climate impacts on global major crops, with important implications for developing crop- and region-specific adaptation strategies to ensure future food supply of an increasing world population.