Global, regional, and national deaths, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years, and years lived with disability for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and asthma, 1990–2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

作者：Joan B. Soriano, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Semaw Ferede Abera, Anurag Agrawal, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibtihel Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Juma Alkaabi, Fatma Al‐Maskari, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Alemayehu Amberbir, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Josep M. Antó, Hamid Asayesh, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Euripide Avokpaho, Aleksandra Barać, Sanjay Basu, Neeraj Bedi, Isabela M. Benseñor, Adugnaw Berhane, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Stan Biryukov, Dube Jara Boneya, Michael Bräuer, David O. Carpenter, Daniel Casey, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Huyen Phuc, Florian Fischer, Tsegaye Tsewelde Gebrehiwot, Ayele Geleto, Aloke Gopal Ghoshal, Richard F Gillum, Ibrahim Ginawi, Vipin Gupta, Simon I Hay, Mohammad Taghi Hedayati, Nobuyuki Horita, Hung Chak Ho, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Spencer L James, Jost B Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Yousef Khader, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Jagdish Khubchandani, Luke D. Knibbs, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, G Anil Kumar, Cheru Tesema Leshargie, Xiaofeng Liang, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Azeem Majeed, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Treh Manhertz, Neal Marquez, Alem Mehari, George A. Mensah, Ted R. Miller, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Ali H. Mokdad, Mohsen Naghavi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Vuong Minh Nong, Jennifer Ifeoma Obi, Yewande Odeyemi, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, Eyal Oren, P A Mahesh, Eun‐Kee Park, George Patton, Katherine Paulson, Mostafa Qorbani, Reginald Quansah, Anwar Rafay, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Salman Rawaf, Nik Reinig, Saeid Safiri, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, Miloje Savic, Monika Sawhney, Mika Shigematsu, Mari Smith, Fentaw Tadese, George D. Thurston, Roman Topór-Mądry, Bach Xuan Tran, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Job F. M. van Boven, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Xia Wan, Andrea Werdecker, Sarah Wulf Hanson, Yuichiro Yano, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Naohiro Yonemoto, Chuanhua Yu, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray, Theo Vos · 发表于：The Lancet Respiratory Medicine · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s2213-2600(17)30293-x · 被引用次数：2610 · 研究领域：Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Research、Asthma and respiratory diseases、Chronic Disease Management Strategies

BACKGROUND: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma are common diseases with a heterogeneous distribution worldwide. Here, we present methods and disease and risk estimates for COPD and asthma from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors (GBD) 2015 study. The GBD study provides annual updates on estimates of deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), a summary measure of fatal and non-fatal disease outcomes, for over 300 diseases and injuries, for 188 countries from 1990 to the most recent year. METHODS: We estimated numbers of deaths due to COPD and asthma using the GBD Cause of Death Ensemble modelling (CODEm) tool. First, we analysed data from vital registration and verbal autopsy for the aggregate category of all chronic respiratory diseases. Subsequently, models were run for asthma and COPD relying on covariates to predict rates in countries that have incomplete or no vital registration data. Disease estimates for COPD and asthma were based on systematic reviews of published papers, unpublished reports, surveys, and health service encounter data from the USA. We used the Global Initiative of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease spirometry-based definition as the reference for COPD and a reported diagnosis of asthma with current wheeze as the definition of asthma. We used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to derive estimates of prevalence and incidence. We estimated population-attributable fractions for risk...