Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

作者：Günter Blöschl, Julia Hall, Juraj Párajka, Rui A. P. Perdigão, Bruno Merz, Berit Arheimer, Giuseppe Tito Aronica, Ardian Bilibashi, Ognjen Bonacci, Marco Borga, Ivan Čanjevac, Attilio Castellarin, Giovanni Battista Chirico, Pierluigi Claps, Károly Fiala, Н. Л. Фролова, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Ali Gül, Jamie Hannaford, Shaun Harrigan, Maria Kireeva, Andrea Kiss, Thomas Kjeldsen, Silvia Kohnová, Jarkko Koskela, Ondřej Ledvinka, Neil Macdonald, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Luis Mediero, Ralf Merz, Péter Molnár, Alberto Montanari, Conor Murphy, Marzena Osuch, Valeryia Ovcharuk, Иван Радевски, Magdalena Rogger, José Luis Salinas, Éric Sauquet, Mojca Šraj, Ján Szolgay, Alberto Viglione, Elena Volpi, Donna Wilson, Klodian Zaımı, Nenad Živković · 发表于：Science · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1126/science.aan2506 · 被引用次数：1064 · 研究领域：Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies、Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Flood Risk Assessment and Management

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.