Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

作者：Haidong Wang, Amanuel Alemu Abajobir, Kalkidan Hassen Abate, Cristiana Abbafati, Kaja Abbas, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Haftom Niguse Abraha, Laith J. Abu‐Raddad, Niveen M. E. Abu-Rmeileh, Isaac Akinkunmi Adedeji, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Ifedayo Adetifa, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Ashkan Afshin, Rakesh Aggarwal, Anurag Agrawal, Sutapa Agrawal, Ali Kiadaliri, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Miloud Taki Eddine Aichour, Amani Nidhal Aichour, Ibthiel Aichour, Sneha Aiyar, A. S. Akanda, Tomi Akinyemiju, Nadia Akseer, Faris Lami, Samer Alabed, Fares Alahdab, Ziyad Al‐Aly, Khurshid Alam, Noore Alam, Deena Alasfoor, Robert W Aldridge, Kefyalew Addis Alene, Ayman Al‐Eyadhy, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Reza Alizadeh‐Navaei, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Juma Alkaabi, Ala’a Alkerwi, François Alla, Shalini D. Allam, Peter Allebeck, Rajaa Al‐Raddadi, Ubai Alsharif, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Azmeraw T. Amare, Emmanuel A Ameh, Erfan Amini, Walid Ammar, Yaw Ampem Amoako, Nahla Anber, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Sofia Androudi, Hossein Ansari, Mustafa Geleto Ansha, Carl Abelardo T. Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Megha Arora, Al Artaman, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Hamid Asayesh, Solomon Weldegebreal Asgedom, Rana Jawad Asghar, Reza Assadi, Ashagre Molla Assaye, Tesfay Mehari Atey, Sachin Atre, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Tesleem Kayode Babalola, Umar Bacha, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Shivanthi Balalla, Aleksandra Barać, Ryan M Barber, Miguel A. Barboza, Suzanne Barker‐Collo, Till Bärnighausen, Sı́món Barquera, Lars Barregård, Lope H. Barrero, Bernhard T. Baune, Shahrzad Bazargan‐Hejazi, Neeraj Bedi, Ettore Beghi, Yannick Béjot, Bayu Begashaw Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Aminu K. Bello, Derrick Bennett, James R. Bennett, Isabela M. Benseñor, Jennifer Benson, Adugnaw Berhane, Derbew Fikadu Berhe, Eduardo Bernabé, Mircea Beuran, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Anil Bhansali, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Zulfiqar A Bhutta, Burcu Küçük Biçer, Hassan Haghparast‐Bidgoli, Boris Bikbov, Charles Birungi, Stan Biryukov, Donal Bisanzio, Habtamu Mellie Bizuayehu, Peter Bjerregaard, Christopher D. Blosser, Dube Jara Boneya, Soufiane Boufous, Rupert Bourne, Alexandra Bražinová, Nicholas J. K. Breitborde, Hermann Brenner, Traolach Brugha, Gene Bukhman, Lemma N Bulto, Blair R Bumgarner, Michael Burch, Zahid A Butt, Leah E. Cahill, Lucero Cahuana-Hurtado, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Josip Car, Mate Car, Rosario Cárdenas, David O. Carpenter, Juan Jesús Carrero, Austin Carter, Carlos A Castañeda-Orjuela, Franz Castro, Rubén Castro, Ferrán Catalá-López, Honglei Chen, Peggy Pei-Chia Chiang, Mirriam Chibalabala, Vesper Hichilombwe Chisumpa, Abdulaal Chitheer, Jee-Young Jasmine Choi, Hanne Christensen, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Liliana G Ciobanu, Massimo Círillo, Aarón Cohen, Samantha Colquhoun, Josef Coresh, Michael H Criqui, Elizabeth A. Cromwell, John A. Crump, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Paul I. Dargan, José das Neves, Gail Davey, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Kairat Davletov, Barbora de Courten, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Selina Deiparine, Robert P Dellavalle, Kebede Deribe, Amare Deribew, Don C. Des Jarlais, Subhojit Dey, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Mukesh Dherani, Cèsar Díaz‐Torné, Eric L. Ding, Priyanka Dixit, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc, David Teye Doku, Christl A. Donnelly, Kadine Priscila Bender dos Santos, Dirk Douwes‐Schultz, Tim Driscoll, Leilei Duan, Manisha Dubey, Bruce Bartholow Duncan, Laxmi Kant Dwivedi, Hedyeh Ebrahimi, Charbel El Bcheraoui, Christian Lycke Ellingsen, Ahmadali Enayati, Aman Yesuf Endries, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Setegn Eshetie, Babak Eshrati, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Kara Estep, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele Fanuel, André Faro, Maryam S. Farvid, Farshad Farzadfar, Valery L. Feigin, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Jefferson Gomes Fernandes, João Carlos Fernandes, Tesfaye Regassa Feyissa, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Nataliya A Foigt, Kyle J Foreman, Tahvi Frank, Richard C. Franklin, Maya Fraser, Joseph Friedman, Joseph Frostad, Nancy Fullman, Thomas Fürst, João M. Furtado, Neal D. Futran, Emmanuela Gakidou, Кетеван Гамбашидзе, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Alberto L. García‐Basteiro, Gebremedhin Berhe Gebregergs, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Kahsu Gebrekirstos Gebrekidan, Mengistu Welday Gebremichael, Amha Admasie Gelaye, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bikila Lencha Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw Gemechu, Ricard Gènova-Maleras, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Peter W. Gething, Katherine B. Gibney, Paramjit Gill, Richard F Gillum, Ababi Zergaw Giref, Bedilu Weji Girma, Giorgia Giussani, Shifalika Goenka, Beatriz Gómez, Philimon Gona, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Alessandra C. Goulart, Nicholas Graetz, H. C. Gugnani, Prakash Chandra Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Rajeev Gupta, Tanush Gupta, Vipin Gupta, Juanita A. Haagsma, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Alex Hakuzimana, Yara A. Halasa, Randah R Hamadeh, Mitiku Teshome Hambisa, Samer Hamidi, Mouhanad Hammami, Jamie Hancock, Alexis J. Handal, Graeme J. Hankey, Yuantao Hao, Hilda L Harb, Habtamu Abera Hareri, S Harikrishnan, Josep María Haro, Mohammad Sadegh Hassanvand, Rasmus Havmoeller, Roderick J. Hay, Simon I Hay, Fei He, Ileana Heredia-Pi, Claudiu Herţeliu, Esayas Haregot Hilawe, Hans W. Hoek, Nobuyuki Horita, Hung Chak Ho, Sorin Hostiuc, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G Hoy, Mohamed Hsaïri, Aung Soe Htet, Guoqing Hu, John J. Huang, Hsiang Huang, Kim Moesgaard Iburg, Ehimario Igumbor, Bogdan Vasile Ileanu, Manami Inoue, Asnake Ararsa Irenso, Caleb Mackay Salpeter Irvine, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Nazrul Islam, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Thomas Jaenisch, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Mehdi Javanbakht, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Ye Jin, Denny John, Oommen John, Sarah Charlotte Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Mikk Jürisson, Zubair Kabir, Rajendra Kadel, Amaha Kahsay, Yogeshwar Kalkonde, Ritul Kamal, Haidong Kan, André Karch, Corine Karema, Seyed M Karimi, Ganesan Karthikeyan, Amir Kasaeian, Nigussie Assefa Kassaw, Nicholas J Kassebaum, Anshul Kastor, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Konstantin Kazanjan, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Sefonias Getachew Kelbore, Andrew H. Kemp, André Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Chandrasekharan Nair Kesavachandran, Ezra B. Ketema, Yousef Khader, Ibrahim A Khalil, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Young‐Ho Khang, Sahil Khera, Abdullah T Khoja, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Getiye Dejenu Kibret, Christian Kieling, Yun Jin Kim, Cho‐il Kim, Daniel Kim, Pauline Kim, Sungroul Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Yohannes Kinfu, Sami Kishawi, Niranjan Kissoon, Mika Kivimäki, Ann Kristin Knudsen, Yoshihiro Kokubo, Jacek A Kopec, Soewarta Kosen, Parvaiz A Koul, Ai Koyanagi, Michael Kravchenko, Kristopher J Krohn, Barthélémy Kuate Defo, Ernst J. Kuipers, Xie Rachel Kulikoff, Veena S. Kulkarni, G Anil Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Fekede Asefa Kumsa, Michael Kutz, Carl Lachat, Abraham K Lagat, Anton Lager, Dharmesh Kumar Lal, Ratilal Lalloo, Nkurunziza Lambert, Qing Lan, Van Charles Lansingh, Heidi J. Larson, Anders Larsson, Dennis Odai Laryea, Pablo M Lavados, Avula Laxmaiah, Paul H. Lee, James Leigh, Janni Leung, Ricky Leung, Miriam Levi, Yongmei Li, Yu Liao, Misgan Legesse Liben, Stephen S Lim, Shai Linn, Steven E. Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Rakesh Lodha, Giancarlo Logroscino, Scott A. Lorch, Stefan Lorkowski, Paulo A. Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Raimundas Lunevičius, Ronan A Lyons, Stefan Ma, Erlyn RachelleKing Macarayan, Ísis Eloah Machado, Mark T. Mackay, Mohammed Magdy Abd El Razek, Carlos Magis‐Rodríguez, Mahdi Mahdavi, Marek Majdán, Reza Majdzadeh, Azeem Majeed, Reza Malekzadeh, Rajesh Malhotra, Déborah Carvalho Malta, LG Mantovani, Tsegahun Manyazewal, Chabila C Mapoma, Laurie B. Marczak, Guy B. Marks, Elena Álvarez Martín, José Martı́nez-Raga, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, João Massano, Pallab K Maulik, Bongani M. Mayosi, Mohsen Mazidi, Colm McAlinden, Stephen T. McGarvey, John J. McGrath, Martin McKee, Suresh Mehata, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Kala M. Mehta, Toni Meier, Tefera Chane Mekonnen, Kidanu Gebremariam Meles, Peter Memiah, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Mubarek Abera Mengistie, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Geetha R. Menon, Bereket Gebremichael Menota, George A. Mensah, Tuomo J Meretoja, Atte Meretoja, Haftay Berhane Mezgebe, Renata Micha, Joseph Mikesell, Ted R. Miller, Edward J Mills, Shawn Minnig, Mojde Mirarefin, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Awoke Misganaw, Shiva Raj Mishra, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Alireza Mohammadi, Kedir Endris Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Murali B V Mohan, Sanjay K. Mohanty, Ali H. Mokdad, Sarah K Mollenkopf, Mariam Molokhia, Lorenzo Monasta, Julio Cesar Montañez Hernandez, Marcella Montico, Meghan Mooney, Ami R. Moore, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Lídia Morawska, Rintaro Mori, Shane D. Morrison, Kalayu Brhane Mruts, Ulrich Müeller, Erin C Mullany, Kate Muller, G. V. S. Murthy, Srinivas Murthy, Kamarul Imran Musa, Jean B. Nachega, Chie Nagata, Gabriele Nagel, Mohsen Naghavi, Kovin Naidoo, Lipika Nanda, Vinay Nangia, Bruno Ramos Nascimento, Gopalakrishnan Natarajan, Ionuţ Negoi, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Quyen Le Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Grant Nguyen, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Marika Nomura, Vuong Minh Nong, Ole Frithjof Norheim, Bo Norrving, Jean Jacques Noubiap, Luke Nyakarahuka, Martin O’Donnell, Carla Makhlouf Obermeyer, Felix Akpojene Ogbo, In‐Hwan Oh, Anselm Okoro, Olanrewaju Oladimeji, Andrew T Olagunju, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun Olusanya, Eyal Oren, Alberto Ortíz, Aaron Osgood‐Zimmerman, Erika Ota, Mayowa Owolabi, Abayomi Samuel Oyekale, P A Mahesh, Rosana Pacella, Smita Pakhalé, Adrian Pană, Basant Kumar Panda, Songhomitra Panda‐Jonas, Eun‐Kee Park, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Tejas Patel, Scott B. Patten, George Patton, Deepak Paudel, David M. Pereira, Rogelio Pérez‐Padilla, Fernando Pérez-Ruiz, Norberto Perico, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Carrie Beth Peterson, William A. Petri, Max Petzold, Michael Phillips, Frédéric B. Piel, David M. Pigott, Farhad Pishgar, Dietrich Plaß, Suzanne Polinder, Svetlana Popova, Maarten J. Postma, Richie Poulton, Farshad Pourmalek, Narayan Prasad, Manorama Purwar, Mostafa Qorbani, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Rynaz H S Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Anwar Rafay, Afarin Rahimi‐Movaghar, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Mahfuzar Rahman, Rajesh Kumar, Saša Rajšić, Usha Ram, Saleem M Rana, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Paturi Vishnupriya Rao, Salman Rawaf, Sarah E. Ray, Maria Albertina Santiago Rego, Jürgen Rehm, Robert C. Reiner, Giuseppe Remuzzi, André M. N. Renzaho, Serge Resnikoff, Satar Rezaei, Mohammad Sadegh Rezai, Antônio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Jacqueline Castillo Rivas, Mohammad Bagher Rokni, Luca Ronfani, Gholamreza Roshandel, Gregory A. Roth, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Ambuj Roy, Enrico Rubagotti, George Mugambage Ruhago, Soheil Saadat, Yogesh Sabde, Perminder S. Sachdev, Nafis Sadat, Mahdi Safdarian, Sare Safi, Saeid Safiri, Rajesh Sagar, Ramesh Sahathevan, Amirhossein Sahebkar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Joseph S Salama, Payman Salamati, Joshua A. Salomon, Sundeep Salvi, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, María Dolores Sánchez-Niño, Itamar S Santos, Milena M Santric-Milicevic, Rodrigo Sarmiento-Suárez, Benn Sartorius, Maheswar Satpathy, Monika Sawhney, Sonia Saxena, Mete Şaylan, María Inês Schmidt, Ione Jayce Ceola Schneider, Sam Schulhofer‐Wohl, Aletta E. Schutte, David C. Schwebel, Falk Schwendicke, Soraya Seedat, Abdulbasit Seid, Sadaf G Sepanlou, Edson Serván‐Mori, Katya Anne Shackelford, Amira Shaheen, Saeid Shahraz, Masood Ali Shaikh, Mansour Shamsipour, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Jayendra Sharma, Rajesh Sharma, Jun She, Jiabin Shen, Balakrishna P Shetty, Peilin Shi, Kenji Shibuya, Girma Temam Shifa, Mika Shigematsu, Rahman Shiri, Ivy Shiue, Mark G. Shrime, Inga Dóra Sigfúsdóttir, Donald H. Silberberg, Naris Silpakit, Diego Augusto Santos Silva, João Pedro Silva, Dayane Gabriele Alves Silveira, Shireen Sindi, Jasvinder A. Singh, Prashant Kumar Singh, Abhishek Singh, Virendra Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Katarzyna Kissimova‐Skarbek, Eirini Skiadaresi, Amber Sligar, David L. Smith, Badr Hasan Sobaih, Eugène Sobngwi, Samir Soneji, Joan B. Soriano, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Vinay Srinivasan, Vasiliki Stathopoulou, Nicholas Steel, Dan J. Stein, Caitlyn Steiner, Heidi Stöckl, Mark A. Stokes, Mark Strong, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Rizwan Abdulkader Suliankatchi, Bruno Sunguya, Patrick John Sur, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, Cassandra Szoeke, Rafael Tabarés‐Seisdedos, Santosh Kumar Tadakamadla, Fentaw Tadese, Nikhil Tandon, David Tanné, Musharaf Tarajia, Mohammad Tavakkoli, Nuno Taveira, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Tesfalidet Tekelab, Dejen Yemane, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Cheru Tesema, Belay Tesssema, Andrew Theis, Nihal Thomas, Alex H Thompson, A. J. Thomson, Amanda G. Thrift, Tenaw Yimer Tiruye, Ruoyan Tobe-Gai, Marcello Tonelli, Roman Topór-Mądry, Fotis Topouzis, Miguel Tortajada, Bach Xuan Tran, Thomas Truelsen, Ulises Trujillo, Nikolaos Tsilimparis, Kald Beshir Tuem, E. Murat Tuzcu, Stefanos Tyrovolas, Kingsley Nnanna Ukwaja, Eduardo A. Undurraga, Olalekan A. Uthman, Benjamin Uzochukwu, Job F. M. van Boven, Yuri Y Varakin, Santosh Varughese, Tommi Vasankari, Ana Maria Nogales Vasconcelos, Ilais Moreno Velásquez, Narayanaswamy Venketasubramanian, Ramesh Vidavalur, Francesco Saverio Violante, Abhishek Vishnu, Sergey Konstantinovitch Vladimirov, Vasily Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Theo Vos, Jillian Waid, Tolassa Wakayo, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G Weintraub, Andrea Werdecker, Joshua Wesana, Tissa Wijeratne, James D. Wilkinson, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Belete Getahun Woldeyes, Charles Wolfe, Abdulhalik Workicho, Shimelash Bitew Workie, Denis Xavier, Gelin Xu, Mohsen Yaghoubi, Bereket Yakob, Ayalnesh Zemene Yalew, Lijing L. Yan, Yuichiro Yano, Mehdi Yaseri, Pengpeng Ye, Hassen Hamid Yimam, Paul Yip, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok‐Jun Yoon, Marcel Yotebieng, Mustafa Z Younis, Zoubida Zaidi, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Hajo Zeeb, Zerihun Menlkalew Zenebe, Taddese Alemu Zerfu, Anthony Lin Zhang, Xueying Zhang, Sanjay Zodpey, Liesl Zühlke, Alan D Lopez, Christopher J L Murray · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(17)31833-0 · 被引用次数：836 · 研究领域：Global Maternal and Child Health、Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Global Health and Surgery

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For...