Development and validation of a mortality risk model for pediatric sepsis

作者：Mengshi Chen, Xiulan Lu, Li Hu, Pingping Liu, Wenjiao Zhao, Haipeng Yan, Liang Tang, Yimin Zhu, Zhenghui Xiao, Lizhang Chen, Hongzhuan Tan · 发表于：Medicine · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1097/md.0000000000006923 · 被引用次数：25 · 研究领域：Sepsis Diagnosis and Treatment、Neonatal and Maternal Infections、Hemodynamic Monitoring and Therapy

Pediatric sepsis is a burdensome public health problem. Assessing the mortality risk of pediatric sepsis patients, offering effective treatment guidance, and improving prognosis to reduce mortality rates, are crucial.We extracted data derived from electronic medical records of pediatric sepsis patients that were collected during the first 24 hours after admission to the pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) of the Hunan Children's hospital from January 2012 to June 2014. A total of 788 children were randomly divided into a training (592, 75%) and validation group (196, 25%). The risk factors for mortality among these patients were identified by conducting multivariate logistic regression in the training group. Based on the established logistic regression equation, the logit probabilities for all patients (in both groups) were calculated to verify the model's internal and external validities.According to the training group, 6 variables (brain natriuretic peptide, albumin, total bilirubin, D-dimer, lactate levels, and mechanical ventilation in 24 hours) were included in the final logistic regression model. The areas under the curves of the model were 0.854 (0.826, 0.881) and 0.844 (0.816, 0.873) in the training and validation groups, respectively.The Mortality Risk Model for Pediatric Sepsis we established in this study showed acceptable accuracy to predict the mortality risk in pediatric sepsis patients.