Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

作者：Aaron J. Cohen, Michael D Brauer, Richard Burnett, H Ross Anderson, Joseph Jon Frostad, Kara Estep, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Bert Brunekreef, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Valery L. Feigin, Greg Freedman, Bryan Hubbell, Amelia Jobling, Haidong Kan, Luke D. Knibbs, Yang Liu, Randall V. Martin, Lídia Morawska, C. Arden Pope, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Kurt Straif, Gavin Shaddick, Matthew Lloyd Thomas, Rita Van Dingenen, Aaron van Donkelaar, Theo Vos, Christopher J L Murray, Mohammad Hossein Forouzanfar · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(17)30505-6 · 被引用次数：6781 · 研究领域：Air Quality and Health Impacts、Climate Change and Health Impacts、COVID-19 impact on air quality

Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM 2·5 ) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM 2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM 2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM 2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exp...