Tree range expansion in eastern North America fails to keep pace with climate warming at northern range limits

作者：Fabian Sittaro, Alain Paquette, Christian Messier, Charles A. Nock · 发表于：Global Change Biology · 年份：2017 · DOI：10.1111/gcb.13622 · 被引用次数：154 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics

Abstract Rising global temperatures are suggested to be drivers of shifts in tree species ranges. The resulting changes in community composition may negatively impact forest ecosystem function. However, long‐term shifts in tree species ranges remain poorly documented. We test for shifts in the northern range limits of 16 temperate tree species in Quebec, Canada, using forest inventory data spanning three decades, 15° of longitude and 7° of latitude. Range shifts were correlated with climate warming and dispersal traits to understand potential mechanisms underlying changes. Shifts were calculated as the change in the 95th percentile of latitudinal occurrence between two inventory periods (1970–1978, 2000–2012) and for two life stages: saplings and adults. We also examined sapling and adult range offsets within each inventory, and changes in the offset through time. Tree species ranges shifted predominantly northward, although species responses varied. As expected shifts were greater for tree saplings, 0.34 km yr−1, than for adults, 0.13 km yr−1. Range limits were generally further north for adults compared to saplings, but the difference diminished through time, consistent with patterns observed for range shifts within each life stage. This suggests caution should be exercised when interpreting geographic range offsets between life stages as evidence of range shifts in the absence of temporal data. Species latitudinal velocities were on average <50% of the velocity required to...