Developing Countries and Global Climate Change: Electric Power Options for Growth

作者：Mark Bernstein, Scott Hassell, Jeff Hagen · 发表于：Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) · 年份：1999 · 被引用次数：24 · 研究领域：Climate Change Policy and Economics、Global Energy and Sustainability Research

In 1995, 34 percent of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions were produced by electric power generation, approximately one-third of which came from developing countries. Between 1995 and 2020, developing countries will invest roughly $1.7 trillion building 50 percent of all new global power generation capacity. If these investments are made according to business-as-usual (BAU) investment trends, CO(2) emissions from developing country power generation will nearly triple their 1995 levels within 20 years. This report presents the results of a RAND study that suggests that BAU investment trends are not the only path to strong economic growth. If developing countries adopt different policies and planning methods for their power generation sectors, technologies other than those included in BAU projections could provide lower local and global environmental impacts and produce similar or even higher economic benefits. This study compared the possible impacts that different policies and technology mixes could have on economic growth, air pollution, and C02 emissions from new electric power generation in developing countries. In order to consistently and quantitatively examine the economic and environmental impacts of different policies and mixes of power generation technologies, this study developed a simulation model that sought to capture the macro-level relationships between electric power generation, economic growth, and capital investment in the world's developing countries. Th...