Projected Impact of Mexico’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax Policy on Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease: A Modeling Study

作者：Luz María Sánchez‐Romero, Joanne M. Penko, Pamela G. Coxson, Alicia Fernández, Antoinette Mason, Andrew Edward Moran, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Michelle C. Odden, Sı́món Barquera, Kirsten B. Bibbins-Domingo · 发表于：PLoS Medicine · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1371/journal.pmed.1002158 · 被引用次数：208 · 研究领域：Global Public Health Policies and Epidemiology、Obesity, Physical Activity, Diet、Diet, Metabolism, and Disease

BACKGROUND: Rates of diabetes in Mexico are among the highest worldwide. In 2014, Mexico instituted a nationwide tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) in order to reduce the high level of SSB consumption, a preventable cause of diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used an established computer simulation model of CVD and country-specific data on demographics, epidemiology, SSB consumption, and short-term changes in consumption following the SSB tax in order to project potential long-range health and economic impacts of SSB taxation in Mexico. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Mexico, a state transition model of Mexican adults aged 35-94 y, to project the potential future effects of reduced SSB intake on diabetes incidence, CVD events, direct diabetes healthcare costs, and mortality over 10 y. Model inputs included short-term changes in SSB consumption in response to taxation (price elasticity) and data from government and market research surveys and public healthcare institutions. Two main scenarios were modeled: a 10% reduction in SSB consumption (corresponding to the reduction observed after tax implementation) and a 20% reduction in SSB consumption (possible with increases in taxation levels and/or additional measures to curb consumption). Given uncertainty about the degree to which Mexicans will replace calories from SSBs with calories from other sources, we evaluated a range of values for calorie compensation. We projected th...