The consequences of four land‐use scenarios for forest ecosystems and the services they provide

作者：Jonathan R. Thompson, Kathleen F. Lambert, David R. Foster, Eben N. Broadbent, Meghan Blumstein, Angélica M. Almeyda Zambrano, Yuanchao Fan · 发表于：Ecosphere · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1002/ecs2.1469 · 被引用次数：59 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Forest Management and Policy、Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management

Abstract Anticipating landscape‐ to regional‐scale impacts of land use on ecosystems and the services they provide is a central challenge for scientists, policymakers, and resource managers. Working with a panel of practitioners and regional experts, we developed and analyzed four plausible but divergent land‐use scenarios that depict the future of Massachusetts from 2010 to 2060 to address two questions: (1) “How do the magnitude and spatial distribution of ecosystem service provisioning vary under the different land‐use regimes?” and (2) “What are the synergies and trade‐offs among direct human uses, ecosystem services, and habitat quality?” Each scenario specifies the detailed prescriptions for the major uses of the forests, including conversion to residential and commercial development, clearing new farmland, shifting silvicultural practices, and designating forests protected from development. We simulated the land‐use scenarios and their interactions with anticipated climate change by coupling statistical models of land use to the LANDIS ‐ II landscape model and then evaluated the outcomes in terms of the magnitude and spatial distribution of (1) direct human uses of the landscape (residential and commercial development, agricultural, timber harvest), (2) ecosystem services (carbon storage, flood regulation, nutrient retention), and (3) habitat quality (forest tree species composition, interior forest habitat). Across all scenarios, conflicts occurred between dispersed r...