Northeastern North America as a potential refugium for boreal forests in a warming climate

作者：Loïc D’Orangeville, Louis Duchesne, Daniel Houle, Daniel Kneeshaw, Benoît Côté, Neil Pederson · 发表于：Science · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1126/science.aaf4951 · 被引用次数：188 · 研究领域：Tree-ring climate responses、Plant Water Relations and Carbon Dynamics、Fire effects on ecosystems

High precipitation in boreal northeastern North America could help forests withstand the expected temperature-driven increase in evaporative demand, but definitive evidence is lacking. Using a network of tree-ring collections from 16,450 stands across 583,000 km(2) of boreal forests in Québec, Canada, we observe a latitudinal shift in the correlation of black spruce growth with temperature and reduced precipitation, from negative south of 49°N to largely positive to the north of that latitude. Our results suggest that the positive effect of a warmer climate on growth rates and growing season length north of 49°N outweighs the potential negative effect of lower water availability. Unlike the central and western portions of the continent's boreal forest, northeastern North America may act as a climatic refugium in a warmer climate.