Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

作者：A. David McGuire, Charles D. Koven, David M. Lawrence, J. S. Clein, Jiangyang Xia, Christian Beer, Eleanor Burke, Guangsheng Chen, Xiaodong Chen, Christine Delire, Elchin Jafarov, Andrew H. MacDougall, S. S. Marchenko, Dmitry Nicolsky, Shushi Peng, Annette Rinke, Kazuyuki Saitô, Wenxin Zhang, Ramdane Alkama, T. J. Bohn, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Decharme, Altug Ekici, Isabelle Gouttevin, T. Hajima, Daniel J. Hayes, Duoying Ji, Gerhard Krinner, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Yiqi Luo, Paul Miller, John C. Moore, V. Romanovsky, Christina Schädel, Kevin Schaefer, Edward A. G. Schuur, Benjamin Smith, Tetsuo Sueyoshi, Qianlai Zhuang · 发表于：Global Biogeochemical Cycles · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1002/2016gb005405 · 被引用次数：174 · 研究领域：Climate change and permafrost、Cryospheric studies and observations、Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology

Abstract A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near‐surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. D...