[Risk factors for short-term outcome of patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure].

作者：Chen Li, Sa Lyu, Bing Zhu, Zhihong Wan, Wanshu Liu, Li Guo, Shaoli You, Shaojie Xin · 发表于：PubMed · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.3760/cma.j.issn.1007-3418.2016.03.010 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Hepatitis B Virus Studies、Liver Disease and Transplantation、Hepatitis C virus research

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the risk factors for the short-term outcome of patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and to establish a risk model for predicting the short-term outcome of these patients. METHODS: A total of 338 patients with HBV-related ACLF who were admitted to 30 Lod hospital of PLA hospital from January 2010 to January 2014 were enrolled, and a prospective clinical follow-up was performed for them. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the risk factors for short-term (12 weeks) outcome, the predictive model with logistic regression equation was established, and the predictive value of this model was evaluated. RESULTS: The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age, a family history of hepatitis B, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), white blood cell (WBC), platelet (PLT), international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin (TBil), total bile acid (TBA), creatinine, Na, HBV DNA, and HBeAg were the independent risk factors for the short-term outcome of these patients. Logistic(p) = -4.466 + 1.192 age + 1.631 family history of hepatitis B + 1.091 HE + 1.631 HRS + 1.208 WBC -1.487 PLT + 1.092 INR + 1.446 TBil + 1.608 TBA -1.101 CHE + 1.279 CRE -1.713 Na + 1.032 HBV DNA + 0.833 HBeAg. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the model for the prediction of short-term outcome was 0.930, the cut-off value was 3.16, the sensitivity was 0.860, and t...