Environmental‐mechanistic modelling of the impact of global change on human zoonotic disease emergence: a case study of Lassa fever

作者：David W. Redding, Lina Moses, Andrew A. Cunningham, James L. N. Wood, Kate E. Jones · 发表于：Methods in Ecology and Evolution · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1111/2041-210x.12549 · 被引用次数：106 · 研究领域：Zoonotic diseases and public health、Viral Infections and Outbreaks Research、Viral Infections and Vectors

Summary Human infectious diseases are a significant threat to global human health and economies (e.g. Ebola, SAR s), with the majority of infectious diseases having an animal source (zoonotic). Despite their importance, the lack of a quantitative predictive framework hampers our understanding of how spillovers of zoonotic infectious diseases into the human population will be impacted by global environmental stressors. Here, we create an environmental‐mechanistic model for understanding the impact of global change on the probability of zoonotic disease reservoir host–human spillover events. As a case study, we focus on Lassa fever virus ( LAS ). We first quantify the spatial determinants of LAS outbreaks, including the phylogeographic distribution of its reservoir host Natal multimammate rat ( Mastomys natalensis ) ( LAS host). Secondly, we use these determinants to inform our environmental‐mechanistic model to estimate present‐day LAS spillover events and the predicted impact of climate change, human population growth and land use by 2070. We find phylogeographic evidence to suggest that LAS is confined to only one clade of LAS host (Western clade Mastomys natalensis ) and that the probability of its occurrence was a major determinant of the spatial variation in LAS historical outbreaks (69·8%), along with human population density (20·4%). Our estimates for present‐day LAS spillover events from our environmental‐mechanistic model were consistent with observed patterns, and we...