Irrational Prosperity, Housing Market, and Financial Crisis: An Empirical Study of Beijing

作者：Lu Ping, Zhen Hui, Xu Yuehong · 年份：2012 · DOI：10.1002/9781119200505.ch12 · 被引用次数：1 · 研究领域：Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis、Economic theories and models、Housing Market and Economics

The Chinese housing market is in a stage of rapid development. It has not undergone a complete cycle, which is the biggest difference from the experiences of other countries following the global financial crisis. Housing price continues to rise quickly in the continually rising market environment, especially in Beijing. Even if the financial crisis had a great impact world in 2008, housing price mark-up has only slowed down. After the financial crisis, Beijing almost immediately entered into a new round of swift price markups. As GDP and the finances of local governments in China mainly rely on the real estate market and land transfers, local governments’ short-term, profit-driven behaviors accompanied by speculators’ irrational behavior are the root causes of such high housing price. These factors, which are common in the market, usually make real estate prices materially deviate from the real value of property. This is a major reason for the violent price fluctuation of the real estate market. With regard to the future housing market and housing prices, the government at all levels should judge dynamically the present situation and the future tendencies of the national and regional housing supply and demand, to formulate both short-term and long-term development programs for the housing industry.