Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4·4 million participants

作者：Bin Zhou, Yuan Lu, Kaveh Hajifathalian, James Bentham, Mariachiara Di Cesare, Goodarz Danaei, Honor Bixby, MJ Cowan, Mohammed K. Ali, Cristina Taddei, WC Lo, Bárbara Reis-Santos, GA Stevens, LM Riley, JJ Miranda, Peter Bjerregaard, JA Rivera, HM Fouad, Guansheng Ma, Jean Claude Mbanya, ST McGarvey, Viswanathan Mohan, Altan Onat, Aida Pilav, Ambady Ramachandran, Romdhane Hb, C Paciorek, James E. Bennett, Majid Ezzati, ZA Abdeen, K Abdul Kadir, NM Abu-Rmeileh, Benjamín Acosta-Cázares, Robert J. Adams, Wichai Aekplakorn, CA Aguilar-Salinas, Charles Agyemang, Alireza Ahmadvand, AR Al-Othman, Ala’a Alkerwi, Philippe Amouyel, Antoinette Amuzu, L. B. Andersen, SA Anderssen, RM Anjana, Hajer Aounallah-Skhiri, Tahir Aris, Nimmathota Arlappa, Dominique Arveiler, Félix Assah, Mária Avdičová, Fereidoun Azizi, Nagalla Balakrishna, Piotr Bandosz, Carlo M. Barbagallo, Alberto Barceló, Anwar Batieha, Louise A. Baur, Romdhane Hb, Mikhail Benet Rodríguez, Antonio Bernabé‐Ortiz, Shruthi K. Bharadwaj, Bhargava Sk, Yuhai Bi, Peter Bjerregaard, Espen Bjertness, MB Bjertness, Cecilia Björkelund, Anneke Blokstra, Simona Bo, B. O. Boehm, CP Boissonnet, Pascal Bovet, Imperia Brajkovich, Juergen Breckenkamp, Hermann Brenner, Lizzy M. Brewster, GR Brian, Graziella Bruno, Anna Bugge, Antonio Cabrera de León, Günay Can, AP Cândido, Vincenzo Capuano, Axel C. Carlsson, Joana Carvalho, Felipe F. Casanueva, JP Casas, CA Caserta, Katia Castetbon, S Chamukuttan, Nish Chaturvedi, C-J Chen, F Chen, S Chen, Ching‐Yu Cheng, Angela Chetrit, S-T Chiou, Yoonho Cho, Jerzy Chudek, Renata Cífková, Frank Claessens, Hans Concin, Cyrus Cooper, Rachel Cooper, Simona Costanzo, D. Cottel, Chris Cowell, Ana B. Crujeiras, Graziella D’Arrigo, Jean Dallongeville, Rachel Dankner, Luc Dauchet, Giovanni de Gaetano, Stefaan De Henauw, Mohan Deepa, Abbas Dehghan, Valérie Deschamps, Klodian Dhana, Augusto Di Castelnuovo, Shirin Djalalinia, Kouamelan Doua, Wojciech Drygas, Yong Du, Vilnis Dzērve, EE Egbagbe, Robert Eggertsen, Jalila El Ati, Roberto Elosúa, RT Erasmus, Cihangir Erem, Gül Ergör, L Eriksen, J Escobedo-de la Peña, Caroline Fall, Farshad Farzadfar, Francisco Javier Félix-Redondo, TS Ferguson, Daniel Fernández‐Bergés, M Ferrari, Catterina Ferreccio, Edith J. M. Feskens, JD Finn, Bernhard Föger, LH Foo, Ann‐Sofie Forslund, HM Fouad, DK Francis, C Franco Mdo, Oscar H. Franco, G. Frontera, T. Furusawa, Zbigniew Gaciong, Sarah P. Garnett, JM Gaspoz, Magda Gasull, L. J. Gates, Johanna M. Geleijnse, A Ghasemian, Anup Ghimire, Simona Giampaoli, Francesco Gianfagna, Jonathan Giovannelli, Aleksander Giwercman, M.L. Gross, JP González Rivas, MB Gorbea, Frédèric Gottrand, D Grafnetter, Tomasz Grodzicki, Anders Grøntved, G Gruden, Dongfeng Gu, OP Guan, Ramiro Guerrero, Idris Guessous, André Luiz Sena Guimarães, Laura Gutiérrez, Ian Hambleton, Rebecca Hardy, R Hari Kumar, Jun Hata, Jiang He, Christin Heidemann, S. Herrala, IT Hihtaniemi, Sai Yin Ho, Ho Sc, Albert Hofman, CM Hormiga, BL Horta, Leïla Houti, Christina Howitt, TT Htay, AS Htet, MM Htike, Yihe Hu, AS Hussieni, Inge Huybrechts, Nahla Hwalla, Licia Iacoviello, AG Iannone, MM Ibrahim, Nayu Ikeda, MA Ikram, V Irazola, M Islam, Masanori Iwasaki, Jeremy M. Jacobs, Tazeen Jafar, KM Jamil, Grażyna Jasieńska, CQ Jiang, JB JONAS, Pradeep Joshi, Anthony Kafatos, Ofra Kalter‐Leibovici, Amir Kasaeian, Joanne Katz, Prabhdeep Kaur, Maryam Kavousi, Sirkka Keinänen‐Kiukaanniemi, Roya Kelishadi, André Pascal Kengne, M. Kersting, Yousef Khader, Davood Khalili, Young‐Ho Khang, Stefan Kiechl, J Kim, Patrick Kolsteren, Paul Korrovits, Wolfgang Kratzer, Daan Kromhout, Urho M. Kujala, Krzysztof Kula, Catherine Kyobutungi, Tiina Laatikainen, Carl Lachat, Youcef Laid, TH Lam, Orlando Landrove, Věra Lánská, Georg Lappas, Avula Laxmaiah, Catherine Leclercq, J Lee, J Lee, Terho Lehtimäki, R Lekhraj, Luz M. León‐Muñoz, Yanping Li, WY Lim, MF Lima-Costa, HH Lin, Xu Lin, Lauren Lissner, Roberto Lorbeer, JE Lozano, Dalia Lukšienė, Annamari Lundqvist, Per Lytsy, Guansheng Ma, GL Machado-Coelho, Suka Machi, Stefania Maggi, Dianna J. Magliano, Márcia Makdisse, K. Mallikharjuna Rao, Yannis Μanios, Enzo Manzato, Paula Margozzini, Pedro Marques‐Vidal, Reynaldo Martorell, SR Masoodi, EB Mathiesen, Tandi E. Matsha, Jean Claude Mbanya, SR McFarlane, ST McGarvey, S. McLachlan, Breige McNulty, Sounnia Médiène-Benchekor, Aline Meirhaeghe, AM Menezes, Shahin Merat, II Meshram, Jie Mi, J. Miquel, JJ Miranda, MK Mohamed, K Mohammad, Noushin Mohammadifard, Viswanathan Mohan, MF Mohd Yusoff, Niels Christian Møller, Dénes Molnár, CK Mondo, Alain Morejón, Luís A. Moreno, Kàren Morgan, George Moschonis, Małgorzata Mossakowska, Aya Mostafa, Jorge Mota, Jorge Motta, TT Mu, ML Muiesan, Martina Müller‐Nurasyid, Jaakko Mursu, Gabriele Nagel, Jana Námešná, EE Nang, VB NangThetia, Eva María Navarrete‐Muñoz, NC Ndiaye, Ilona Nenko, Flavio Nervi, ND Nguyen, Quoc-Huy Vu Nguyen, Ramfis Nieto‐Martínez, Guang Ning, Toshiharu Ninomiya, Marianna Noale, Davide Noto, MA Nsour, Angélica Ochoa‐Avilés, Kyungwon Oh, Altan Onat, Pedro Ordúñez, Clive Osmond, Johanna Otero, Ellis Owusu‐Dabo, E. V. Pahomova, Luigi Palmieri, Songhomitra Panda-Jonas, Francesco Panza, Mahboubeh Parsaeian, Sérgio Viana Peixoto, Catherine Pelletier, Markku Peltonen, Annette Peters, Niloofar Peykari, ST Pham, Aida Pilav, F Pitakaka, Aleksandra Piwońska, Jerzy Piwoński, Pedro Plans-Rubió, Miquel Porta, ML Portegies, Hossein Poustchi, Rajendra Pradeepa, Jackie F. Price, Margus Punab, RF Qasrawi, Mostafa Qorbani, Ričardas Radišauskas, Md Mahmudur Rahman, Olli Raitakari, SR Rao, Ambady Ramachandran, Jacqueline Ramke, Rafel Ramos, Sanjay Rampal, Wolfgang Rathmann, Josep Redón, PF Reganit, Fernando Rigo, Siân Robinson, Cynthia Robitaille, Fernando Rodríguez-Artalejo, C Rodriguez-Perez Mdel, Laura Andrea Rodríguez-Villamizar, Rosalba Rojas, Kimmo Ronkainen, Annika Rosengren, Adolfo Rubinstein, O Rui, BS Ruiz-Betancourt, RV Russo Horimoto, Marcin Rutkowski, Charumathi Sabanayagam, Harshpal Singh Sachdev, Olfa Saidi, Sibel Sakarya, Benoı̂t Salanave, J T Salonen, Massimo Salvetti, José Sánchez-Abanto, Diana A. Santos, RN dos Santos, Rute Santos, JL Saramies, LB Sardinha, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Saum Ku, Márcia Scazufca, Hermán Schargrodsky, Christa Scheidt‐Nave, AA Sein, SK Sharma, JE Shaw, Kenji Shibuya, Youchan Shin, Rahman Shiri, Rosalynn Siantar, Abla Mehio Sibai, Maximilien Simon, J. Simons, Simons La, Michael Sjöstróm, Jolanta Słowikowska-Hilczer, Przemysław Ślusarczyk, Liam Smeeth, MB Snijder, Hung‐Kwan So, Eugène Sobngwi, Stefan Söderberg, Vincenzo Solfrizzi, Emily Sonestedt, A. Soumare, Jan A. Staessen, Maria G. Stathopoulou, Jostein Steene-Johannessen, Peter Stehle, Aryeh D. Stein, Jochanan Stessman, Doris Stöckl, Jakub Stokwiszewski, Karien Stronks, MW Strufaldi, Sun Ca, Johan Sundström, YT Sung, Paibul Suriyawongpaisal, RG Sy, E Shyong Tai, Abdonas Tamošiūnas, Line Tang, Mohammed Rasoul Tarawneh, CB Tarqui-Mamani, Anne Taylor, Holger Theobald, Lutgarde Thijs, Betina H. Thuesen, Hanna Tolonen, Janne Schurmann Tolstrup, Murat Topbaş, Maties Torrent, Pierre Traissac, OT Trinh, MK Tulloch-Reid, TP Tuomainen, ML Turley, Christophe Tzourio, Peter Ueda, Ukoli Fa, Hanno Ulmer, HM Uusitalo, Gonzalo Valdívia, Damaskini Valvi, Lenie van Rossem, Irene G. M. van Valkengoed, Dirk Vanderschueren, Diego Vanuzzo, Tomás Vega, Gustavo Velásquez-Meléndez, Giovanni Veronesi, W. M. Monique Verschuren, Roosmarijn Verstraeten, Lam Le Viet, Jesús Vioqué, Jyrki K. Virtanen, Sophie Visvikis‐Siest, Bharathi Viswanathan, Péter Vollenweider, Sari Voutilainen, Martine Vrijheid, Alisha N. Wade, Anne Wagner, Janette Walton, WN Wan Mohamud, Fengdan Wang, MD Wang, Q Wang, YX Wang, SG Wannamethee, Deepa Weerasekera, Peter H. Whincup, K. Widhalm, Andrzej Więcek, A. H. Wijga, RJ Wilks, Johann Willeit, Tom Wilsgaard, Bogdan Wojtyniak, Tien Yin Wong, Jean Woo, Mark Woodward, FC Wu, Wu Sl, Hongqin Xu, Weili Yan, Xinming Yang, X Ye, A Yoshihara, NO Younger-Coleman, Sabina Zambon, AH Zargar, Tomasz Zdrojewski, Wei Zhao, Yingfeng Zheng, Julio Zúñiga Cisneros · 发表于：The Lancet · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.1016/s0140-6736(16)00618-8 · 被引用次数：4421 · 研究领域：Diabetes, Cardiovascular Risks, and Lipoproteins、Diabetes Management and Education、Diabetes and associated disorders

BACKGROUND: One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. METHODS: We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. FINDINGS: We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors)...