A new methodology for weighting high-resolution model simulations to project future rainfall in the Middle East

作者：R. Samuels, Maayan Harel, Pinhas Alpert · 发表于：Climate Research · 年份：2013 · DOI：10.3354/cr01147 · 被引用次数：12 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 57:51-60 (2013) - DOI: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01147 A new methodology for weighting high-resolution model simulations to project future rainfall in the Middle East Rana Samuels*, Maayan Harel, Pinhas Alpert Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel *Email: ranas@post.tau.ac.il ABSTRACT: A divergence metric was used to combine 4 high-resolution climate models to generate more reliable simulations of future rainfall. The approach is based on the assumption that the use of multiple models (an ensemble) is superior to the use of a single model, even if one of the models is shown to better capture past trends. Such an approach is especially useful in areas with steep climatic gradients, where large-scale climate models are not effective in capturing orographic and local effects. We applied the methodology to the Middle East, and specifically to Israel, where climate shifts from arid to humid temperate occur over a distance of around 400 km. Model weights were determined by calculating the similarity between the probability distributions of the models and those of the historical data using the Jenson-Shannon divergence metric. These weights were then applied to future model projections. Annual amounts of rainfall, numbers of wet days ...