Predicting the genetic consequences of future climate change: The power of coupling spatial demography, the coalescent, and historical landscape changes

作者：Jason L. Brown, Jennifer J. Weber, Diego F. Alvarado‐Serrano, Michael J. Hickerson, Steven J. Franks, Ana Carolina Carnaval · 发表于：American Journal of Botany · 年份：2016 · DOI：10.3732/ajb.1500117 · 被引用次数：55 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Genetic diversity and population structure、Environmental DNA in Biodiversity Studies

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Climate change is a widely accepted threat to biodiversity. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to forecast whether and how species distributions may track these changes. Yet, SDMs generally fail to account for genetic and demographic processes, limiting population-level inferences. We still do not understand how predicted environmental shifts will impact the spatial distribution of genetic diversity within taxa. METHODS: We propose a novel method that predicts spatially explicit genetic and demographic landscapes of populations under future climatic conditions. We use carefully parameterized SDMs as estimates of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats and landscape dispersal permeability under present-day, past, and future conditions. We use empirical genetic data and approximate Bayesian computation to estimate unknown demographic parameters. Finally, we employ these parameters to simulate realistic and complex models of responses to future environmental shifts. We contrast parameterized models under current and future landscapes to quantify the expected magnitude of change. KEY RESULTS: We implement this framework on neutral genetic data available from Penstemon deustus. Our results predict that future climate change will result in geographically widespread declines in genetic diversity in this species. The extent of reduction will heavily depend on the continuity of population networks and deme sizes. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this...