Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Third Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

作者：Andrew Haines · 发表于：International Journal of Epidemiology · 年份：2003 · DOI：10.1093/ije/dyg059 · 被引用次数：443 · 研究领域：Environmental Policies and Emissions

This authoritative report builds on past assessments and summarizes new results from the past 5 years of research on climate change. It represents the views of many hundreds of scientists from countries who participated in its preparation and extensive review. For those public health professionals who are interested in the impacts of climate change on biological and geophysical systems, as well as on human health, the report of Working Group 2 may be more relevant. However, for those who want to learn more about the science underpinning our understanding of the climate system and how it is responding to increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, this report is obligatory reading. Science has progressed considerably since the release of the Second Assessment Report in 1996 and the panel makes a number of important conclusions. Over the 20th century the increase in global average surface temperature has been 0.6 ± 0.2°C. This is substantially larger, by about 0.15°C, than that estimated in the Second Assessment Report, owing to relatively high temperatures that were experienced in the subsequent years and improved methods of data processing. It is now very likely that the 1990s was the warmest decade since 1861 when instrumental recording began. Perhaps even more importantly, the increase in temperature in the Northern Hemisphere in the 20th century is likely to have been the largest of any century during the past 1000 years. Snow cover and the extent of i...