Leontief-Based Model of Risk in Complex Interconnected Infrastructures

作者：Yacov Y. Haimes, Jiang Pu · 发表于：Journal of Infrastructure Systems · 年份：2001 · DOI：10.1061/(asce)1076-0342(2001)7:1(1) · 被引用次数：587 · 研究领域：Infrastructure Resilience and Vulnerability Analysis、Risk and Safety Analysis、Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design

Wassily Leontief received the 1973 Nobel Price in Economics for developing what came to be known as the Leontief input-output model of the economy. Leontief's model enables understanding the interconnectedness among the various sectors of an economy and forecasting the effect on one segment of a change in another. A Leontief-based infrastructure input-output model is developed here to enable an accounting of the intraconnectedness within each critical infrastructure as well as the interconnectedness among them. The linear input/output model is then generalized into a generic risk model with the former as the first-order approximation. A preliminary study of the dynamics of risk of inoperability is discussed, using a Leontief-based dynamic model. Several examples are presented to illustrate the theory and its applications.