World Soybean Production: Area Harvested, Yield, and Long-Term Projections

作者：Tadayoshi Masuda, Peter Goldsmith, Masuda, Tadayoshi, Goldsmith, Peter D. · 发表于：RePEc: Research Papers in Economics · 年份：2009 · DOI：10.22004/ag.econ.92573 · 被引用次数：297 · 研究领域：Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets、Agricultural Economics and Policy

Soybeans (Glycine max) serve as one of the most valuable crops in the world, not only as an oil seed crop and feed for livestock and aquaculture, but also as a good source of protein for the human diet and as a biofuel feedstock. The world soybean production increased by 4.6% annually from 1961 to 2007 and reached average annual production of 217.6 million tons in 2005-07. World production of soybeans is predicted to increase by 2.2% annually to 371.3 million tons by 2030 using an exponential smoothing model with a damped trend. Finally, three scenarios and their implications are presented for increasing supply as land availability declines. The scenarios highlight for agribusiness policy makers and managers the urgent need for significant investments in yield improving research.