The Global Atmospheric Environment for the Next Generation

作者：Frank J. Dentener, David S. Stevenson, Kari Elsa Ellingsen, Twan van Noije, Martin G. Schultz, Markus Christian Amann, C. S. Atherton, Nadine Bell, Dan Bergmann, I. Bey, Lex Bouwman, Tim M. Butler, J. Cofała, William James Collins, J. Drevet, Ruth M. Doherty, Bas Eickhout, Henk J. Eskes, Arlene M. Fiore, Michael Gauss, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Larry W. Horowitz, I. S. A. Isaksen, B. Josse, M. G. Lawrence, Maarten Krol, Jean‐François Lamarque, V. Montanaro, J.‐F. Müller, Vincent‐Henri Peuch, Giovanni Pitari, John Adrian Pyle, Sebastian Rast, José Manuel Rodríguez, Michael G. Sanderson, Nick Savage, Drew T. Shindell, S. E. Strahan, Sophie Szopa, K. Sudo, Rita Van Dingenen, Oliver Wild, Guang Zeng · 发表于：Environmental Science & Technology · 年份：2006 · DOI：10.1021/es0523845 · 被引用次数：383 · 研究领域：Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics、Atmospheric Ozone and Climate

Air quality, ecosystem exposure to nitrogen deposition, and climate change are intimately coupled problems: we assess changes in the global atmospheric environment between 2000 and 2030 using 26 state-of-the-art global atmospheric chemistry models and three different emissions scenarios. The first (CLE) scenario reflects implementation of current air quality legislation around the world, while the second (MFR) represents a more optimistic case in which all currently feasible technologies are applied to achieve maximum emission reductions. We contrast these scenarios with the more pessimistic IPCC SRES A2 scenario. Ensemble simulations for the year 2000 are consistent among models and show a reasonable agreement with surface ozone, wet deposition, and NO2 satellite observations. Large parts of the world are currently exposed to high ozone concentrations and high deposition of nitrogen to ecosystems. By 2030, global surface ozone is calculated to increase globally by 1.5 +/- 1.2 ppb (CLE) and 4.3 +/- 2.2 ppb (A2), using the ensemble mean model results and associated +/-1 sigma standard deviations. Only the progressive MFR scenario will reduce ozone, by -2.3 +/- 1.1 ppb. Climate change is expected to modify surface ozone by -0.8 +/- 0.6 ppb, with larger decreases over sea than over land. Radiative forcing by ozone increases by 63 +/- 15 and 155 +/- 37 mW m(-2) for CLE and A2, respectively, and decreases by -45 +/- 15 mW m(-2) for MFR. We compute that at present 10.1% of the glob...