False-Positive Psychology

作者：Joseph P. Simmons, Leif D. Nelson, Uri Simonsohn · 发表于：Psychological Science · 年份：2011 · DOI：10.1177/0956797611417632 · 被引用次数：6860 · 研究领域：Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics、Meta-analysis and systematic reviews、Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials

In this article, we accomplish two things. First, we show that despite empirical psychologists' nominal endorsement of a low rate of false-positive findings (≤ .05), flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting dramatically increases actual false-positive rates. In many cases, a researcher is more likely to falsely find evidence that an effect exists than to correctly find evidence that it does not. We present computer simulations and a pair of actual experiments that demonstrate how unacceptably easy it is to accumulate (and report) statistically significant evidence for a false hypothesis. Second, we suggest a simple, low-cost, and straightforwardly effective disclosure-based solution to this problem. The solution involves six concrete requirements for authors and four guidelines for reviewers, all of which impose a minimal burden on the publication process.