Measuring the Implications of Sales and Consumer Inventory Behavior

作者：Igal E. Hendel, Aviv Nevo · 发表于：Econometrica · 年份：2005 · DOI：10.1111/j.1468-0262.2006.00721.x · 被引用次数：667 · 研究领域：Consumer Market Behavior and Pricing、Consumer Retail Behavior Studies、Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting

Temporary price reductions (sales) are common for many goods and naturally result in large increases in the quantity sold.Demand estimation based on temporary price reductions may mismeasure the long run responsiveness to prices.In this paper we quantify the extent of the problem and assess its economic implications.We structurally estimate a dynamic model of consumer choice using two years of scanner data on the purchasing behavior of a panel of households.The results suggest that static demand estimates, which neglect dynamics: (i) overestimate own price elasticities by 30 percent; (ii) underestimate cross-price elasticities to other products by up to a factor of 5; and(iii) overestimate the substitution to the no purchase, or outside option, by over 200 percent.