Ecosystem Service Supply and Vulnerability to Global Change in Europe

作者：Dagmar Schröter, Wolfgang Crämer, Rik Leemans, I. Colin Prentice, Miguel B. Araújo, Nigel W. Arnell, Alberte Bondeau, Harald Bugmann, Timothy R. Carter, Carlos Gracia, Anne Cristina de la Vega-Leinert, Markus Erhard, Frank Ewert, M. J. Glendining, Joanna I. House, Susanna Kankaanpää, Richard J. T. Klein, Sandra Lavorel, Marcus Lindner, Marc J. Metzger, Jeannette Meyer, Timothy D. Mitchell, Isabelle Reginster, Mark Rounsevell, Santiago Sabaté, Stephen Sitch, Benjamin Smith, Jo Smith, Pete Smith, Martin T. Sykes, Kirsten Thonicke, Wilfried Thuiller, G. Tuck, Sönke Zaehle, Bärbel Zierl · 发表于：Science · 年份：2005 · DOI：10.1126/science.1115233 · 被引用次数：1704 · 研究领域：Land Use and Ecosystem Services、Forest Management and Policy、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies

Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.