A Spreadsheet-Based Model Demonstrating the Nonuniform Economic Effects of Varying Reproductive Performance in Ohio Dairy Herds

作者：Cheyney Meadows, Päivi J. Rajala‐Schultz, G. S. Frazer · 发表于：Journal of Dairy Science · 年份：2005 · DOI：10.3168/jds.s0022-0302(05)72791-0 · 被引用次数：104 · 研究领域：Agricultural Economics and Policy、Economics of Agriculture and Food Markets、Soil and Water Nutrient Dynamics

A spreadsheet-based model was developed to estimate the economic effect of varying reproductive performance in dairy herds. Scenarios were created to model an average cow with respect to production, herd lifetime, and reproductive events. Average milk yield per day of life as well as lifetime calf and replacement heifer production were examined. Additional inputs representing milk, feed, semen, calf, and salvage prices were used to calculate net cash flow for each day of herd life for the average cow in a scenario. Economic comparison of different scenarios was accomplished using an equivalent annual cash flow (annuity) methodology.Herd performance measures and prices representative of Ohio dairy herds were used to establish a baseline average cow that had a 160-d calving-to-conception interval [days open (DO)]. Alternative scenarios that differed from baseline in DO, annual culling rate, and feed and milk prices were created to characterize the effects of changes. Under scenario inputs representative of typical Ohio dairy herds, the model indicated that a lower annual culling rate (25%) was preferable to higher annual culling rates (34 or 45%). The model estimated maximum average milk yield per day of life to occur at 110 DO. At 34% annual culling rate, calves and replacement heifers produced per lifetime declined as DO increased; beyond 150 DO, the modeled cow produced less than 1 replacement heifer per lifetime. The model also estimated a loss of $1.37 per cow per year for...