Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the ‘yield gap’ of croplands around the world?

作者：Rachel Licker, Matt Johnston, Jonathan A. Foley, Carol Barford, Christopher J. Kucharik, Chad Monfreda, Navin Ramankutty · 发表于：Global Ecology and Biogeography · 年份：2010 · DOI：10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00563.x · 被引用次数：616 · 研究领域：Climate change impacts on agriculture、Agricultural Economics and Policy、Land Use and Ecosystem Services

ABSTRACT Aim As the demands for food, feed and fuel increase in coming decades, society will be pressed to increase agricultural production – whether by increasing yields on already cultivated lands or by cultivating currently natural areas – or to change current crop consumption patterns. In this analysis, we consider where yields might be increased on existing croplands, and how crop yields are constrained by biophysical (e.g. climate) versus management factors. Location This study was conducted at the global scale. Methods Using spatial datasets, we compare yield patterns for the 18 most dominant crops within regions of similar climate. We use this comparison to evaluate the potential yield obtainable for each crop in different climates around the world. We then compare the actual yields currently being achieved for each crop with their ‘climatic potential yield’ to estimate the ‘yield gap’. Results We present spatial datasets of both the climatic potential yields and yield gap patterns for 18 crops around the year 2000. These datasets depict the regions of the world that meet their climatic potential, and highlight places where yields might potentially be raised. Most often, low yield gaps are concentrated in developed countries or in regions with relatively high‐input agriculture. Main conclusions While biophysical factors like climate are key drivers of global crop yield patterns, controlling for them demonstrates that there are still considerable ranges in yields attri...