Bayesian Network Modeling to Improve Water Pricing Practices in Northwest China

作者：Yusuyunjiang Mamitimin, Til Feike, Reiner Doluschitz · 发表于：Water · 年份：2015 · DOI：10.3390/w7105617 · 被引用次数：28 · 研究领域：Water resources management and optimization、Bayesian Modeling and Causal Inference、Hydrology and Watershed Management Studies

Water pricing is regarded as the most important and simplest economic instrument to encourage more efficient use of irrigation water in crop production. In the extremely water-scarce Tarim River basin in northwest China, improving water use efficiency has high relevance for research and policy. A Bayesian network modeling approach was applied, which is especially suitable under data-scarce conditions and the complex geo-hydrological, socioeconomic, and institutional settings of the study region, as it allows the integration of data from various types of sources. The transdisciplinary approach aimed at understanding the actual water pricing practices, the shortcomings of the current system, and possible ways of improvement. In an iterative procedure of expert interviews and group workshops, the key factors related to water pricing and water use efficiency were identified. The interactions among specific factors were defined by the respective experts, generating a causal network, which describes all relevant aspects of the investigated system. This network was finally populated with probabilistic relationships through a second round of expert interviews and group discussions. The Bayesian modeling exercise was then conducted using Netica software. The modeling results show that the mere increase of water price does not lead to significant increases in water use efficiency in crop production. Additionally, the model suggests a shift to volumetric water pricing, subsidization of ...