An agent-based approach for modeling dynamics of contagious disease spread

作者：Liliana Pérez, Suzana Dragićević · 发表于：International Journal of Health Geographics · 年份：2009 · DOI：10.1186/1476-072x-8-50 · 被引用次数：385 · 研究领域：COVID-19 epidemiological studies、Zoonotic diseases and public health、Data-Driven Disease Surveillance

BACKGROUND: The propagation of communicable diseases through a population is an inherent spatial and temporal process of great importance for modern society. For this reason a spatially explicit epidemiologic model of infectious disease is proposed for a greater understanding of the disease's spatial diffusion through a network of human contacts. OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based modelling approach the integrates geographic information systems (GIS) to simulate the spread of a communicable disease in an urban environment, as a result of individuals' interactions in a geospatial context. METHODS: The methodology for simulating spatiotemporal dynamics of communicable disease propagation is presented and the model is implemented using measles outbreak in an urban environment as a case study. Individuals in a closed population are explicitly represented by agents associated to places where they interact with other agents. They are endowed with mobility, through a transportation network allowing them to move between places within the urban environment, in order to represent the spatial heterogeneity and the complexity involved in infectious diseases diffusion. The model is implemented on georeferenced land use dataset from Metro Vancouver and makes use of census data sets from Statistics Canada for the municipality of Burnaby, BC, Canada study site. RESULTS: The results provide insights into the application of the model to calculate ratios of susc...