Using pattern‐oriented modeling for revealing hidden information: a key for reconciling ecological theory and application

作者：Thorsten Wiegand, Florian Jeltsch, Ilkka Hanski, Volker Grimm · 发表于：Oikos · 年份：2003 · DOI：10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12027.x · 被引用次数：353 · 研究领域：Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Wildlife Ecology and Conservation、Species Distribution and Climate Change

We suggest that the conscious use of information that is “hidden” in distinct structures in nature itself and in data extracted from nature (=pattern) during the process of modeling (=pattern‐oriented modeling) can substantially improve models in ecological application and conservation. Observed patterns, such as time‐series patterns and spatial patterns of presence/absence in habitat patches, contain a great deal of data on scales, site‐history, parameters and processes. Use of these data provides criteria for aggregating the biological information in the model, relates the model explicitly to the relevant scales of the system, facilitates the use of helpful techniques of indirect parameter estimation with independent data, and helps detect underlying ecological processes. Additionally, pattern‐oriented models produce comparative predictions that can be tested in the field. We developed a step‐by‐step protocol for pattern‐oriented modeling and illustrate the potential of this protocol by discussing three pattern‐oriented population models: (1) a population viability analysis for brown bears ( Ursus arctos ) in northern Spain using time‐series data on females with cubs of the year to adjust unknown model parameters; (2) a savanna model for detecting underlying ecological processes from spatial patterns of tree distribution; and (3) the incidence function model of metapopulation dynamics as an example of process integration and model generalization. We conclude that using the ...