Non-linearity and Expectations in Niche-Development Trajectories: Ups and Downs in Dutch Biogas Development (1973–2003)

作者：Frank W. Geels, Rob Raven · 发表于：Technology Analysis and Strategic Management · 年份：2006 · DOI：10.1080/09537320600777143 · 被引用次数：653 · 研究领域：Complex Systems and Decision Making、Innovation and Knowledge Management、Innovation Diffusion and Forecasting

Non-linearity and changes in the direction of technological trajectories, are related to changes in cognitive rules and expectations that guide technical search and development activities. To explain such changes, the article uses the literature on niche development, which highlights interactions between learning processes, network building and expectations. A long-term case study on Dutch biogas development illustrates how these interactions explain non-linearity, but the case study also shows the importance of external regime dynamics. It is concluded that non-linearity and changes in niche expectations are related to both internal learning processes and external developments.