Long-Term Climate Commitments Projected with Climate–Carbon Cycle Models

作者：Gian‐Kasper Plattner, Reto Knutti, Fortunat Joos, T. F. Stocker, Werner von Bloh, Victor A. Brovkin, David Cameron, E. Driesschaert, Stephanie Dutkiewicz, Michael Eby, Neil Robert Edwards, Thierry Fichefet, J. C. Hargreaves, CHRIS D. JONES, Marie‐France Loutre, H. Damon Matthews, Anne Mouchet, Simon A. Müller, S. Nawrath, André L. Price, Andrei Sokolov, Kuno Strassmann, Andrew J. Weaver · 发表于：Journal of Climate · 年份：2008 · DOI：10.1175/2007jcli1905.1 · 被引用次数：270 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Geology and Paleoclimatology Research、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Abstract Eight earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) are used to project climate change commitments for the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). Simulations are run until the year 3000 a.d. and extend substantially farther into the future than conceptually similar simulations with atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) coupled to carbon cycle models. In this paper the following are investigated: 1) the climate change commitment in response to stabilized greenhouse gases and stabilized total radiative forcing, 2) the climate change commitment in response to earlier CO2 emissions, and 3) emission trajectories for profiles leading to the stabilization of atmospheric CO2 and their uncertainties due to carbon cycle processes. Results over the twenty-first century compare reasonably well with results from AOGCMs, and the suite of EMICs proves well suited to complement more complex models. Substantial climate change commitments for sea level rise and global mean surface temperature increase after a stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gases and radiative forcing in the year 2100 are identified. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.6–1.6 K for the low-CO2 IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) B1 scenario and 1.3–2.2 K for the high-CO2 SRES A2 scenario. Correspondingly, the post-2100 thermal expansion commitment is 0.3–1.1 m for SRES B1 and 0.5–2.2 m for SRES A2. Sea level cont...