Malaria incidence from 2005–2013 and its associations with meteorological factors in Guangdong, China

作者：Cui Guo, Lin Yang, Chun‐Quan Ou, Li Li, Yan Zhuang, Jun Yang, Ying-Xue Zhou, Jun Qian, Ping-Yan Chen, Qiyong Liu · 发表于：Malaria Journal · 年份：2015 · DOI：10.1186/s12936-015-0630-6 · 被引用次数：115 · 研究领域：Malaria Research and Control、Mosquito-borne diseases and control、Parasites and Host Interactions

BACKGROUND: The temporal variation of malaria incidence has been linked to meteorological factors in many studies, but key factors observed and corresponding effect estimates were not consistent. Furthermore, the potential effect modification by individual characteristics is not well documented. This study intends to examine the delayed effects of meteorological factors and the sub-population's susceptibility in Guangdong, China. METHODS: The Granger causality Wald test and Spearman correlation analysis were employed to select climatic variables influencing malaria. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the non-linear and delayed effects of weekly temperature, duration of sunshine, and precipitation on the weekly number of malaria cases after controlling for other confounders. Stratified analyses were conducted to identify the sub-population's susceptibility to meteorological effects by malaria type, gender, and age group. RESULTS: An incidence rate of 1.1 cases per 1,000,000 people was detected in Guangdong from 2005-2013. High temperature was associated with an observed increase in malaria incidence, with the effect lasting for four weeks and a maximum relative risk (RR) of 1.57 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06-2.33) by comparing 30°C to the median temperature. The effect of sunshine duration peaked at lag five and the maximum RR was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.08-1.72) by comparing 24 hours/week to 0 hours/week. A J-shaped relationship was found between m...