Models for temporal variation in cancer rates. I: Age–period and age–cohort models

作者：David G Clayton, Eugène Schifflers · 发表于：Statistics in Medicine · 年份：1987 · DOI：10.1002/sim.4780060405 · 被引用次数：697 · 研究领域：Insurance, Mortality, Demography, Risk Management、Health and Conflict Studies、Global Health Care Issues

A main concern of descriptive epidemiologists is the presentation and interpretation of temporal variations in cancer rates. In its simplest form, this problem is that of the analysis of a set of rates arranged in a two-way table by age group and calendar period. We review the modern approach to the analysis of such data which justifies traditional methods of age standardization in terms of the multiplicative risk model. We discuss the use of this model when the temporal variations are due to purely secular (period) influences and when they are attributable to generational (cohort) influences. Finally we demonstrate the serious difficulties which attend the interpretation of regular trends. The methods described are illustrated by examples for incidence rates of bladder cancer in Birmingham, U.K., mortality from bladder cancer in Italy, and mortality from lung cancer in Belgium.