Inference and Explanation in Counterfactual Reasoning

作者：Lance J. Rips, Brian Joseph Edwards · 发表于：Cognitive Science · 年份：2013 · 被引用次数：68 · 研究领域：Child and Animal Learning Development、Decision-Making and Behavioral Economics、Epistemology, Ethics, and Metaphysics

This article reports results from two studies of how people answer counterfactual questions about simple machines. Participants learned about devices that have a specific configuration of components, and they answered questions of the form "If component X had not operated [failed], would component Y have operated?" The data from these studies indicate that participants were sensitive to the way in which the antecedent state is described-whether component X "had not operated" or "had failed." Answers also depended on whether the device is deterministic or probabilistic--whether X's causal parents "always" or only "usually" cause X to operate. Participants' explanations of their answers often invoked non-operation of causally prior components or unreliability of prior connections. They less often mentioned independence from these causal elements.