Multimodel ensemble simulations of present‐day and near‐future tropospheric ozone

作者：David S. Stevenson, F. J. Dentener, Martin G. Schultz, Kari E. Ellingsen, Twan van Noije, Oliver Wild, Guang Zeng, Markus Amann, C. S. Atherton, N. Bell, Dan Bergmann, I. Bey, Tim Butler, J. Cofała, W. J. Collins, Richard G. Derwent, R. M. Doherty, J. Drevet, Henk Eskes, Arlene M. Fiore, Michael Gauss, Didier Hauglustaine, Larry W. Horowitz, I. S. A. Isaksen, Maarten Krol, Jean‐François Lamarque, M. G. Lawrence, V. Montanaro, Jean‐François Müller, Giovanni Pitari, Michael J. Prather, J. A. Pyle, Sebastian Rast, J. M. Rodriguez, M. G. Sanderson, Nick Savage, Drew Shindell, S. E. Strahan, Kengo Sudo, Sophie Szopa · 发表于：Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres · 年份：2006 · DOI：10.1029/2005jd006338 · 被引用次数：1384 · 研究领域：Atmospheric chemistry and aerosols、Atmospheric Ozone and Climate、Atmospheric and Environmental Gas Dynamics

Global tropospheric ozone distributions, budgets, and radiative forcings from an ensemble of 26 state‐of‐the‐art atmospheric chemistry models have been intercompared and synthesized as part of a wider study into both the air quality and climate roles of ozone. Results from three 2030 emissions scenarios, broadly representing “optimistic,” “likely,” and “pessimistic” options, are compared to a base year 2000 simulation. This base case realistically represents the current global distribution of tropospheric ozone. A further set of simulations considers the influence of climate change over the same time period by forcing the central emissions scenario with a surface warming of around 0.7K. The use of a large multimodel ensemble allows us to identify key areas of uncertainty and improves the robustness of the results. Ensemble mean changes in tropospheric ozone burden between 2000 and 2030 for the 3 scenarios range from a 5% decrease, through a 6% increase, to a 15% increase. The intermodel uncertainty (±1 standard deviation) associated with these values is about ±25%. Model outliers have no significant influence on the ensemble mean results. Combining ozone and methane changes, the three scenarios produce radiative forcings of −50, 180, and 300 mW m−2, compared to a CO2 forcing over the same time period of 800–1100 mW m−2. These values indicate the importance of air pollution emissions in short‐ to medium‐term climate forcing and the potential for stringent/lax control measures ...