Health impact of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical China: the climate and health impact national assessment study (CHINAs)

作者：Mai Geng Zhou, Lijun Wang, Tao Liu, Yong Hui Zhang, Hua Lin, Yuan Luo, Jian Xiao, Wei Zeng, Ye Wu Zhang, Xiao Feng Wang, Xin Gu, Shannon Rutherford, Cordia Chu, Jun Wen · 发表于：Environmental Health · 年份：2014 · DOI：10.1186/1476-069x-13-60 · 被引用次数：107 · 研究领域：Climate Change and Health Impacts、Thermal Regulation in Medicine、Climate variability and models

BACKGROUND: Many studies have investigated heat wave related mortality, but less attention has been given to the health effects of cold spells in the context of global warming. The 2008 cold spell in China provided a unique opportunity to estimate the effects of the 2008 cold spell on mortality in subtropical regions, spatial heterogeneity of the effects, stratification effect and added effects caused by sustained cold days. METHODS: Thirty-six study communities were selected from 15 provinces in subtropical China. Daily mortality and meteorological data were collected for each community from 2006 to 2010. A distributed lag linear non-linear model (DLNM) with a lag structure of up to 27 days was used to analyze the association between the 2008 cold spell and mortality. Multivariate meta-analyses were used to combine the cold effects across each community. RESULTS: The 2008 cold spell increased mortality by 43.8% (95% CI: 34.8% ~ 53.4%) compared to non-cold spell days with the highest effects in southern and central China. The effects were more pronounced for respiratory mortality (RESP) than for cardiovascular (CVD) or cerebrovascular mortality (CBD), for females more than for males, and for the elderly aged ≥75 years old more than for younger people. Overall, 148,279 excess deaths were attributable to the 2008 cold spell. The cold effect was mainly from extreme low temperatures rather than sustained cold days during this 2008 cold spell. CONCLUSIONS: The 2008 cold spell incr...