Estimation in Parallel Randomized Experiments

作者：Donald B. Rubin · 发表于：Journal of Educational Statistics · 年份：1981 · DOI：10.3102/10769986006004377 · 被引用次数：245 · 研究领域：Statistical Methods in Clinical Trials、Statistical Methods and Bayesian Inference、Optimal Experimental Design Methods

Many studies comparing new treatments to standard treatments consist of parallel randomized experiments. In the example considered here, randomized experiments were conducted in eight schools to determine the effectiveness of special coaching programs for the SAT. The purpose here is to illustrate Bayesian and empirical Bayesian techniques that can be used to help summarize the evidence in such data about differences among treatments, thereby obtaining improved estimates of the treatment effect in each experiment, including the one having the largest observed effect. Three main tools are illustrated: 1) graphical techniques for displaying sensitivity within an empirical Bayes framework, 2) simple simulation techniques for generating Bayesian posterior distributions of individual effects and the largest effect, and 3) methods for monitoring the adequacy of the Bayesian model specification by simulating the posterior predictive distribution in hypothetical replications of the same treatments in the same eight schools.