Model‐based uncertainty in species range prediction

作者：Richard G. Pearson, Wilfried Thuiller, Miguel B. Araújo, Enrique Martínez‐Meyer, Lluís Brotons, Colin J. McClean, Lera Miles, Pedro Segurado, Terence P. Dawson, David C. Lees · 发表于：Journal of Biogeography · 年份：2006 · DOI：10.1111/j.1365-2699.2006.01460.x · 被引用次数：988 · 研究领域：Species Distribution and Climate Change、Ecology and Vegetation Dynamics Studies、Wildlife Ecology and Conservation

Abstract Aim Many attempts to predict the potential range of species rely on environmental niche (or ‘bioclimate envelope’) modelling, yet the effects of using different niche‐based methodologies require further investigation. Here we investigate the impact that the choice of model can have on predictions, identify key reasons why model output may differ and discuss the implications that model uncertainty has for policy‐guiding applications. Location The Western Cape of South Africa. Methods We applied nine of the most widely used modelling techniques to model potential distributions under current and predicted future climate for four species (including two subspecies) of Proteaceae. Each model was built using an identical set of five input variables and distribution data for 3996 sampled sites. We compare model predictions by testing agreement between observed and simulated distributions for the present day (using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and kappa statistics) and by assessing consistency in predictions of range size changes under future climate (using cluster analysis). Results Our analyses show significant differences between predictions from different models, with predicted changes in range size by 2030 differing in both magnitude and direction (e.g. from 92% loss to 322% gain). We explain differences with reference to two characteristics of the modelling techniques: data input requirements (presence/absence vs. presence‐only approa...