Estimates Of Health Care Professional Shortages In Sub-Saharan Africa By 2015

作者：Richard M. Scheffler, Chris Mahoney, Brent D. Fulton, Mário Roberto Dal Poz, Alexander S. Preker · 发表于：Health Affairs · 年份：2009 · DOI：10.1377/hlthaff.28.5.w849 · 被引用次数：118 · 研究领域：Healthcare Policy and Management、Global Health Workforce Issues、Global Health Care Issues

This paper uses a forecasting model to estimate the need for, supply of, and shortage of doctors, nurses, and midwives in thirty-nine African countries for 2015, the target date of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. We forecast that thirty-one countries will experience needs-based shortages of doctors, nurses, and midwives, totaling approximately 800,000 health professionals. We estimate the additional annual wage bill required to eliminate the shortage at about $2.6 billion (2007 $US)-more than 2.5 times current wage-bill projections for 2015. We illustrate how changes in workforce mix can reduce this cost, and we discuss policy implications of our results.