The Role of Temperature and Humidity on Seasonal Influenza in Tropical Areas: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama, 2008–2013

作者：Radina P. Soebiyanto, Wilfrido Clara, Jorge Jara, Leticia Castillo, Oscar René Sorto, Sidia Marinero, María E. Barnett de Antinori, John P. McCracken, Marc‐Alain Widdowson, Eduardo Azziz‐Baumgartner, Richard K. Kiang · 发表于：PLoS ONE · 年份：2014 · DOI：10.1371/journal.pone.0100659 · 被引用次数：87 · 研究领域：Influenza Virus Research Studies、Respiratory viral infections research、Data-Driven Disease Surveillance

BACKGROUND: The role of meteorological factors on influenza transmission in the tropics is less defined than in the temperate regions. We assessed the association between influenza activity and temperature, specific humidity and rainfall in 6 study areas that included 11 departments or provinces within 3 tropical Central American countries: Guatemala, El Salvador and Panama. METHOD/FINDINGS: Logistic regression was used to model the weekly proportion of laboratory-confirmed influenza positive samples during 2008 to 2013 (excluding pandemic year 2009). Meteorological data was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite and the Global Land Data Assimilation System. We found that specific humidity was positively associated with influenza activity in El Salvador (Odds Ratio (OR) and 95% Confidence Interval of 1.18 (1.07-1.31) and 1.32 (1.08-1.63)) and Panama (OR = 1.44 (1.08-1.93) and 1.97 (1.34-2.93)), but negatively associated with influenza activity in Guatemala (OR = 0.72 (0.6-0.86) and 0.79 (0.69-0.91)). Temperature was negatively associated with influenza in El Salvador's west-central departments (OR = 0.80 (0.7-0.91)) whilst rainfall was positively associated with influenza in Guatemala's central departments (OR = 1.05 (1.01-1.09)) and Panama province (OR = 1.10 (1.05-1.14)). In 4 out of the 6 locations, specific humidity had the highest contribution to the model as compared to temperature and rainfall. The model performed best in estimating 2013 influe...