Predicting Outcome After Acute and Subacute Stroke

作者：Carl Counsell, Martin Dennis, M. McDowall, Charles Warlow · 发表于：Stroke · 年份：2002 · DOI：10.1161/hs0402.105909 · 被引用次数：317 · 研究领域：Acute Ischemic Stroke Management、Stroke Rehabilitation and Recovery、Intracerebral and Subarachnoid Hemorrhage Research

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Statistical models to predict the outcome of patients with acute and subacute stroke could have several uses, but no adequate models exist. We therefore developed and validated new models. METHODS: Regression models to predict survival to 30 days after stroke and survival in a nondisabled state at 6 months were produced with the use of established guidelines on 530 patients from a stroke incidence study. Three models were produced for each outcome with progressively more detailed sets of predictor variables collected within 30 days of stroke onset. The models were externally validated and compared on 2 independent cohorts of stroke patients (538 and 1330 patients) by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and by plotting calibration graphs. RESULTS: Models that included only 6 simple variables (age, living alone, independence in activities of daily living before the stroke, the verbal component of the Glasgow Coma Scale, arm power, ability to walk) generally performed as well as more complex models in both validation cohorts (AUC 0.84 to 0.88). They had good calibration but were overoptimistic in patients with the highest predicted probabilities of being independent. There were no differences in AUCs between patients seen within 48 hours of stroke onset and those seen later; between ischemic and hemorrhagic strokes; and between those with and without a previous stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The simple models performed well eno...