Decadal Climate Prediction: An Update from the Trenches

作者：Gerald A. Meehl, Lisa Goddard, G. J. Boer, Robert Burgman, Grant Branstator, Christophe Cassou, Susanna Corti, Gökhan Danabasoglu, Francisco J. Doblas‐Reyes, Ed Hawkins, Alicia Karspeck, Masahide Kimoto, Arun Kumar, Daniela Matei, Juliette Mignot, Rym Msadek, Antonio Navarra, Holger Pohlmann, Michele M. Rienecker, Tony Rosati, Edwin K. Schneider, Doug Smith, Rowan Sutton, Haiyan Teng, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Stephen Yeager · 发表于：Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society · 年份：2013 · DOI：10.1175/bams-d-12-00241.1 · 被引用次数：575 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations、Oceanographic and Atmospheric Processes

This paper provides an update on research in the relatively new and fast-moving field of decadal climate prediction, and addresses the use of decadal climate predictions not only for potential users of such information but also for improving our understanding of processes in the climate system. External forcing influences the predictions throughout, but their contributions to predictive skill become dominant after most of the improved skill from initialization with observations vanishes after about 6–9 years. Recent multimodel results suggest that there is relatively more decadal predictive skill in the North Atlantic, western Pacific, and Indian Oceans than in other regions of the world oceans. Aspects of decadal variability of SSTs, like the mid-1970s shift in the Pacific, the mid-1990s shift in the northern North Atlantic and western Pacific, and the early-2000s hiatus, are better represented in initialized hindcasts compared to uninitialized simulations. There is evidence of higher skill in initialized multimodel ensemble decadal hindcasts than in single model results, with multimodel initialized predictions for near-term climate showing somewhat less global warming than uninitialized simulations. Some decadal hindcasts have shown statistically reliable predictions of surface temperature over various land and ocean regions for lead times of up to 6–9 years, but this needs to be investigated in a wider set of models. As in the early days of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (EN...