Living with Uncertainty in Resource Management

作者：Ray Hilborn · 发表于：North American Journal of Fisheries Management · 年份：1987 · DOI：10.1577/1548-8659(1987)7<1:lwuirm>2.0.co;2 · 被引用次数：118 · 研究领域：Reservoir Engineering and Simulation Methods、Complex Systems and Decision Making

An analysis of the types of uncertainties faced by resource managers is presented. Uncertainties are classified by the frequency of occurrence. Managers develop ways for dealing with frequently occurring uncertainties that do not commonly present extraordinary problems. Uncertainties that occur infrequently require an adaptive learning approach to management where we must learn about the true states of nature by careful monitoring, evaluation, and experimentation. In an undesirable situation, the ability to respond rapidly is most important. Uncertainties that occur rarely, called surprise, are very difficult to deal with. Suggested responses include holding some resources in reserve to cope with the unexpected and developing broadly based monitoring systems to detect surprises as early as possible.