The Probability of Malignancy in Solitary Pulmonary Nodules

作者：Stephen J. Swensen · 发表于：Archives of Internal Medicine · 年份：1997 · DOI：10.1001/archinte.1997.00440290031002 · 被引用次数：830 · 研究领域：Lung Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment、Lung Cancer Treatments and Mutations、Interstitial Lung Diseases and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis

BACKGROUND: A clinical prediction model to identify malignant nodules based on clinical data and radiological characteristics of lung nodules was derived using logistic regression from a random sample of patients (n = 419) and tested on data from a separate group of patients (n = 210). OBJECTIVE: To use multivariate logistic regression to estimate the probability of malignancy in radiologically indeterminate solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) in a clinically relevant subset of patients with SPNs that measured between 4 and 30 mm in diameter. PATIENTS AND METHODS: A retrospective cohort study at a multispecialty group practice included 629 patients (320 men, 309 women) with newly discovered (between January 1, 1984, and May 1, 1986) 4- to 30-mm radiologically indeterminate SPNs on chest radiography. Patients with a diagnosis of cancer within 5 years prior to the discovery of the nodule were excluded. Clinical data included age, sex, cigarette-smoking status, and history of extrathoracic malignant neoplasm, asbestos exposure, and chronic interstitial or obstructive lung disease; chest radiological data included the diameter, location, edge characteristics (eg, lobulation, spiculation, and shagginess), and other characteristics (eg, cavitation) of the SPNs. Predictors were identified in a random sample of two thirds of the patients and tested in the remaining one third. RESULTS: Sixty-five percent of the nodules were benign, 23% were malignant, and 12% were indeterminate. Three c...