Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe

作者：Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Maciej Radziejewski, Iwona Pińskwar · 发表于：Climate Research · 年份：2006 · DOI：10.3354/cr031051 · 被引用次数：184 · 研究领域：Climate variability and models、Hydrology and Drought Analysis、Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations

CR Climate Research Contact the journal Facebook Twitter RSS Mailing List Subscribe to our mailing list via Mailchimp HomeLatest VolumeAbout the JournalEditorsSpecials CR 31:51-58 (2006) - doi:10.3354/cr031051 Precipitation extremes in the changing climate of Europe Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz1,2,*, Maciej Radziejewski1,3, Iwona Pinskwar1 1Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment, Polish Academy of Sciences, Bukowska 19, 60809 Poznan, Poland 2Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegrafenberg, 14412 Potsdam, Germany 3Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science, Adam Mickiewicz University, Umultowska 87, 61-614 Poznan, Poland *Email: zkundze@man.poznan.pl ABSTRACT: Several episodes of extreme precipitation or extreme lack of precipitation (and high temperature) leading to dramatic and high-impact floods and droughts have occurred in Europe in recent years. Climate scenarios suggest that problems of too little or too much water may become more severe in the future. Using data from the Hadley Centre's HadRM3 model, this paper analyzes future changes in the characteristics of intense precipitation (mean daily precipitation amounts and number of days with intense precipitation in a year) and the duration of dry (also dry and hot) spells over the European continent, comparing the time periods of 1961–1990 and 2070–2099. The potential for intense precipitation is likely to increase in the warmer climate of the future, contributing to the growth of flood hazard i...