Nine scoring models for short‐term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis: cross‐validation in a biopsy‐proven cohort

作者：Vasilios Papastergiou, Emmanuel A. Tsochatzis, Giulia Pieri, E. Thalassinos, Anjan Dhar, Savino Bruno, Stylianos Karatapanis, Tu Vinh Luong, James P. O’Beirne, David Patch, Doug Thorburn, A K Burroughs · 发表于：Alimentary Pharmacology & Therapeutics · 年份：2014 · DOI：10.1111/apt.12654 · 被引用次数：62 · 研究领域：Alcohol Consumption and Health Effects、Liver Disease and Transplantation、Alcoholism and Thiamine Deficiency

BACKGROUND: Several prognostic models have emerged in alcoholic hepatitis (AH), but lack of external validation precludes their universal use. AIM: To validate the Maddrey Discriminant Function (DF); Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS); Mayo End-stage Liver Disease (MELD); Age, Bilirubin, INR, Creatinine (ABIC); MELD-Na, UK End-stage Liver Disease (UKELD), and three scores of corticosteroid response at 1 week: an Early Change in Bilirubin Levels (ECBL), a 25% fall in bilirubin, and the Lille score. METHODS: Seventy-one consecutive patients with biopsy-proven AH, admitted between November 2007-September 2011, were evaluated. The clinical and biochemical parameters were analysed to assess prognostic models with respect to 30- and 90-day mortality. RESULTS: There were no significant differences in the areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROCs) relative to 30-day/90-day mortality: MELD 0.79/0.84, DF 0.71/0.74, GAHS 0.75/0.78, ABIC 0.71/0.78, MELD-Na 0.68/0.76, UKELD 0.56/0.68. One-week rescoring yielded a trend towards improved predictive accuracies (30-day/90-day AUROCs: 0.69–0.84/0.77–0.86). In patients with admission DF ≥ 32 (n = 31), response to corticosteroids according to ECBL, 25% fall in bilirubin and the Lille model yielded AUROCs of 0.73/0.73, 0.78/0.72 and 0.81/0.82 for a 30-day/90-day outcome respectively. All models showed excellent negative predictive values (NPVs; range: 86–100%), while the positive ones were low (range: 17–50%). CONCLUS...